POST-EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND 27 MAY 2014

Turning to the post-election phase, there is no guarantee that the candidate of the European political party that wins most votes in 2014 will automatically become the head of the Commission. Even if the European Parliament settles on a nominee, the European Council might not endorse the EP's choice. It is possible that EU governments could, for example, argue that they considered the result of the European elections when selecting not 'only' the nominee for the President of the Commission but also the contenders for the other prestigious EU jobs. In all probability, the Parliament would strongly oppose such an interpretation of the Treaties, and this could then lead to a political stand-off between the EP and the European Council.

Article 17(7) of the Treaty on European Union says "Taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members. If he does not obtain the required majority, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall within one month propose a new candidate who shall be elected by the European Parliament following the same procedure".

Declaration 11 annexed to the Lisbon Treaty states that "the European Parliament and the European Council are jointly responsible for the smooth running of the process leading to the election of the President of the European Commission. Prior to the decision of the European Council, representatives of the European Parliament and of the European Council will thus conduct the necessary consultations in the framework deemed the most appropriate. These consultations will focus on the backgrounds of the candidates for President of the Commission, taking account of the elections to the European Parliament, in accordance with the first subparagraph of Article 17(7). The arrangements for such consultations may be determined, in due course, by common accord between the European Parliament and the European Council".

Despite the lack of clarity surrounding especially the expression of “taking into account” the three largest groups in the European Parliament (the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal ALDE group) maintain in a joint declaration that the next Commission President must be chosen from amongst the candidates put forward by the European party families. The main argument behind the idea of automaticity is that it will increase voter turnout at the elections and reduce the perceived democratic deficit of the European Union. German Chancellor Merkel, however,  has insisted there’s no automaticity in the process, and she is factually right that it is nowhere clearly mentioned in the treaty.

If voter turnout remains low there is a real chance that the European Council will propose a dark horse candidate for President that is not one of the lead European party group candidates for instance, Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen or the Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde are names which have been floated. Given the fact that the party group candidates present the principle of automaticity as unquestionable, many voters will see any “backroom deal” between member state governments as a form of undemocratic deception by corrupt elites. This would ultimately increase the perceived democratic deficit of the EU and also strengthen the appeal of Eurosceptic forces à la Farage and Le Pen.

A  meeting of the Conference of Presidents is scheduled on Tuesday 27 May 2014 to evaluate the results of the election. This initial evaluation will take place ahead of the informal meeting of Heads of State and government on the same day. A large majority of political group leaders agree that the European Council should evaluate the European election results and consult the European Parliament political groups before coming with a proposal for a new Commission President.