CATEGORISING THE 'MALCONTENTS BLOCK' IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

The Open Europe think tank has identified 6 distinct categories within the next European Parliament which they have called the 'Malcontents Block'. In terms of the seat distribution, the 'Malcontents Block parties' could collectively secure 218 out of 751 seats or 29%.

1. Anti-EU Parties: Parties that want to leave the EU altogether. Estimated Number of Seats 52
2. Strongly EU-Critical: Parties that have not come out in support of definitely leaving the EU but which are not far off that position and which are very critical of the EU's kery policies such as the free movement of people and/or the Euro. Estimated Number of Seats 29
3. Nationalists/Conservatives: Traditionalist conservative parties which despite occasionally tough rhetoric are broadly supportive of EU membership but are opposed to further transfer of sovereignty, including joining the euro or the Eurozone bailouts in the case of existing members. Many of these parties would likely be more sceptical if not for the often generous subsidies their countries receive from the EU budget. Estimated Number of Seats 51
4. Anti-Establishment: Parties which lack a coherent political philosophy and are predominantly defined by their opposition to a political etablishment they perceive as out of touch. Primarily they target national elites, but they are often critical of the EU as well- Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement in Italy is a good example. Estimated Number of Seats 28
5. Populist Left: Parties towards the far left of the spectrum, including unreformed Communist parties, which have come out in favour of leaving the EU- indeed many support European integration per se, but which are deeply hostile not only to EU-mandated "austerity' policies but also to key EU principles including free trade agreements and the single market. Estimated Number of Seats: 50
6. Neo-Fascists: Parties which promote an overtly neo-fascist agenda directed at immigrants and/or ethnic and religious minorities, and which often have ties to violent criminal gangs. Estimated Number of Seats: 8

HOWEVER, the above parties are not a coherent group and many will struggle to get along with each other due to their views on immigration (receiving countries vs sending countries), the Eurozone (creditor countries vs debtor counries), economic isues (free markets vs protectionism) and wider social issues (traditionalists vs liberals/libertarians).

The Front National (France) and the PVV (Netherlands) have teamed up to establish a new group called the European Alliance for Freedom (EAF). A group of seven Anti-EU and Strongly EU Critical Parties could get as many as 38 MEPs, enough to establish a new group in the European Parliament. These include the Front National (France), the PVV (Netherlands), the Vlaams Belang (Belgium), the Lega Nord (Italy), the Freedom Party (Austria), the Sweden Democrats and the Slovak National Party. However, beyond these seven it is difficult to see who else would join as the UKIP and the Danish People's Party have both ruled it out, while neo-fascist Jobbik (Hungary) and Golden Dawn (Greece) have been ruled out as too extreme.

Despite many differences on social and economic issues, these parties could unite around a broadly nationalist anti-immigrant agenda with a strong dose of economic protectitionism. The group itself would not strictly speaking be anti-EU as not all the parties involved have actively come out in support of their country leaving the EU.

The European Alliance for Freedom (EAF) pursues the following objectives:

• Non-centralised, transparent, flexible and democratically controlled EU and rejection of any development leading to a European superstate;
• Pursue true subsidiarity and self-rule ensuring that democracy is preserved on the basis of sovereign parliaments in Memer States, over which the citizens exercise democratic control;
• Sustain diversity and accountable cooperation at European level among free peoples able to regulate themselves in accordance with mutually agreed common standards;
• Uphold freedom of political expression and association across Europe and especially within the structures of the EU;
• Promote a political environment in which movements, political parties and other political organisations  are given equal opportunities to voice their concerns and advance their political positions;
• Ensure that the peoples and nations of Europe are allowed to pursue their right to strengthen their own historical, traditional, religious and cultural values;
• Defend civil liberties and ensure that no characteristics of a totalitarian nature emerge in the continuing political development of the European Union, while identifying already existing anti-democratioc legislation with an aim to revoke it.

The Europe Freedom and Democracy Group (EFD) pursues the following objectives

• Freedom and co-operation among people of different States (committed to the principles of democracy, freedom and co-operation among Nation States, the Group favours an open, transparent, democratic and accountable co-operation among sovereign European States and rejects the bureaucratisation of Europe and the creation of a single centralised European superstate;
• More democracy and respect of People's will (convinced that the legitimate level for democracy lies with the Nation States, their regions and parliaments since there is no such thing as a single European people; the Group opposes further European integration (treaties and policies) that would exacerbate the present democratic deficit and the centralist political structure of the EU. The Group favours that any new treaties or any modification of the existing treaties are to be submitted to the peoples’ vote through free and fair national referenda in the Member States. The Group does believe that the legitimacy of any power comes from the will of its Peoples and their right to be free and democratically ruled;
• Respect for Europe's history, traditions and cultural values (peoples and Nations of Europe have the right to protect their borders and strengthen their own historical, traditional, religious and cultural values. The Group rejects xenophobia, anti-Semitism and any other form of discrimination);
• Respect for national differences and interests: Freedom of votes (Agreeing on embodying these principles in its proceedings, the Group respects the freedom of its delegations and Members to vote as they see fit).