MADURO’S EXTERNAL SUPPORTERS

1. Cuba, Bolivia, El Salvador and Nicaragua continue to support Maduro.
2. Mexico, has backed Maduro’s government after Guaidó’s announcement.
3. While the Maduro administration is under heightened pressure from the Western Hemisphere, it has retained the support of Russia and China, allies who have played a crucial role in keeping the Venezuelan regime afloat through loans and other contributions.
4. In addition to Russia, China and Iran, other notable countries did recognize the results of Maduro’s re-election including Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Vietnam and Belarus. Political, economic and military engagements have gradually increased in recent years between Venezuela and several of these countries.
5. Turkey’s Erdogan has enthusiastically stood by the embattled Maduro regime during the recent crisis.
6. Belarus" Alexander Lukashenko expressed his support to Maduro after Guaidó declared himself president. 
7. Egypt’s Sisi has not declared its official position in Venezuela’s presidential standoff. Yet, the Sisi government was one of the few countries to congratulate Maduro on his re-election in May. 
8. Maduro’s government has also sought to develop its relations with Ilham Aliyev’s Azerbaijan. The two leaders have expressed their mutual desire to increase cooperation in the areas of tourism, culture, agriculture, finance, and energy. 
9. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also refused to join the Western Hemisphere’s efforts to recognize Guaidó and called on the parties to find a political solution to resolve their differences through dialogue. 
10. India, Egypt, and Qatar have not shown their support yet to Maduro amid the recent standoff. While these countries are surely following the situation closely, their silence thus far suggests a tacit recognition of Maduro as president.
11. Qatar and Saudi Arabia supported Maduro during their memberships on the U.N. Human Rights Council in 2017-18 when they rejected resolutions dealing with human rights violations in Venezuela. In addition to that, the two nations, which are frequently accused of human rights violations, sided with Maduro by signing declarations at the Human Rights Council supporting the position of the Venezuelan government, which demanded full respect for the sovereignty of Venezuela.
12. Qatar has also shown little willingness to join Western isolation efforts towards the Maduro regime.

Conclusion

As Venezuela loses some of its regional allies, it seems to have succeeded in creating an alternative alliance system that may be partially shielding it from international pressures. Highly personalized and less institutionalized diplomacy, the expectation of preferential access to Venezuelan natural resources, and a shared sense of resentment against Western powers have all helped convince a crop of new partners to deepen ties with Maduro.

In some instances, Venezuela’s new allies are less democratic or outright authoritarian regimes, and these countries tend to support one another against pressures and isolation efforts by democratic states. While these alliances of convenience lack firm ideological foundations, they help the isolated countries sustain their regimes in the face of Western pressures.

It should be noted that these new allies’ recent flirtations with Maduro are rooted in interests that are more pragmatic and less geopolitical compared to those of Russia and China which have long sought to assert geopolitical influence in America’s backyard. But although these newer allies are not as significant to Venezuela as China and Russia are, their interest in building ties with Venezuela extends a lifeline to the Maduro regime. These countries’ support — at a time when the country faces a serious challenge in the Western Hemisphere — offers some relief to an embattled Maduro, helping him maintain his grip on power.

After Guaidó declared himself interim president, Washington called on the world to pick a side and urged all countries to end financial transactions with Maduro’s government. Venezuela reacted by deeming the move a U.S.-backed coup attempt and announced that it would cut off diplomatic ties with the United States.

The standoff over Venezuela resembles Cold-War style conflict. The international community is sharply divided between countries that favor Maduro’s leaving power and those that prefer he remain. As long as the domestic conflict remains unresolved, a diplomatic standoff between U.S. allies and Maduro’s external supporters will persist. Moreover, this crisis risks opening up Venezuela to all sorts of meddling by international actors.

Under these circumstances, Maduro will need more allies that recognize him as Venezuela’s legitimate leader. Given that he will retain access to the country’s resources for the foreseeable future, the Venezuelan dictator may still be able to count on support from these partners in addition to longstanding allies China and Russia.

List of Countries

1. Azerbaijan
2. Cuba
3. Belarus
4. Bolivia
5. China
6. Egypt
7. El Salvador
8. India
9. Iraq
10. Iran
11. Mexico
12. Nicaragua
13. Qatar
14. Russia
15. Saudi Arabia
16. Syria
17. Turkey
18. Vietnam