LET THE PEOPLE IN CRIMEA DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES!!!

If there is an annexation of Crimea, if there is a referendum that moves Crimea from Ukraine to Russia, we won't recognize it, nor will most of the world, U.S. deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken said on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday. So I think you'd see, if there are further steps in the direction of annexing Crimea, a very strong, coordinated international response. So what?

The biggest mistake that so many commentators on all sides make is to say that Ukraine's splitting up into two will have disastrous implication for its neighbours and even regional stability. Well, maybe for the western part of Ukraine that would be the case. It is totally dependent on the industrial base in the east and will have to rely on financial support from the European Union.

Meanwhile the pro-Russian east will actually survive that split, using its close economic and political links with its big neighbour. Not that it would be a great scenario, as everyone accepts at the moment, but if the worst came to the worst, it would not be the end of the world for the mostly Russian-speaking south and east.

The main problem with the new interim regime in Kiev, is that they have been making all the wrong choices. This has been the case ever since they came to power as a result of violent protests which pushed Yanukovych and his government out of power. The new people in Kiev were openly hostile to Russia from the beginning and that was bound to encounter opposition in the south-east of the country. This is exactly what is happening in Crimea and other regions.

The new interim government of national unity which has now emerged in Kiev, headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, does not really come across as a uniting force.

Russia  cannot afford to have a Western dominated Ukraine, with a possibility of it becoming a member of NATO, not to mention that it would be political suicide for Putin not to be seen in his own country as taking a tough stance against attempts to drag Ukraine away from Russia. And what can the West do anyway, if Moscow offers protection to ethnic Russians living in the south and east in Ukraine?

At the moment the Russian government is telling the world that it is up to the new interim regime in Kiev to sort out the extremist elements in Crimea and other places who are turning against the new authorities. Of course, Western governments see that as an attempt to cover up Moscow's interference in Ukraine's affairs.

The situation in Ukraine remains very dangerous, with a significant possibility of a civil war breaking out and engulfing the whole of the region. It's a good time for all sides to choose their words carefully and tread cautiously. But Western leaders should not kid themselves about Moscow's determination to protect its interests in Ukraine and even to allow a split of the country into two, if the situation gets out of control.

Grave mistake or not, as the US Secretary of State John Kerry has said about a possible Russian military involvement in Ukraine, this is not going to stop Moscow from taking drastic steps if needed. For the stakes are much too high for the Kremlin to just watch idly as its neighbour drifts into the sphere of influence of the West.