LARGEST INCOME WINNERS OF A TRANSATLANTIC FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

All members of the planned free trade area would benefit from the deal, with the US emerging as the biggest winner. But European Union member states stand to make large gains as well. Gross Domestic product per capita would rise by 13.4% in the U.S. and would result in more than a million new jobs in America.

In Europe the largest income winners would be:

1. United Kingdom + 9.7%
2. Sweden + 7.3%
3. Ireland + 6.9%
4. Spain + 6.6%
5. Finland + 6.2%
6. Estonia + 5.7%
7. Latvia + 5.4%
8. Denmark: + 5.3%
9. Greece + 5.1%
10. Lithuania: +5.1%
11. Cyprus: + 5.0%
12. Portugal + 5.0%
13. Italy + 4.9%
14. Bulgaria + 4.8%
15. Germany + 4.7%
16. Romania + 4.6%
17. Hungary + 4.4%
18. Netherlands: + 4.4%
19. Slovakia: +4.2%
20. Poland: + 3.7%
21. Belgium: +3.6%
22. Slovenia: + 3.3%
23. Luxembourg: + 3.0%
24. Austria: + 2.7%
25. France: + 2.6%

In addition to economic growth, the trans-Atlantic trade between the EU and the US would grow rapidly. Germany would see exports to and imports from the US almost double, and American trade with crisis-stricken euro-zone countries like Greece, Italy and Portugal would increase by more than 90 percent.

Trade among European Union partners would suffer because the advantages currently in place would disappear. For example it is estimated that German trade with France would drop by 23 percent and by 40 percent with Britain. Trade with Italy, Greece and other EU member states suffering from the euro crisis would drop by around 30 percent. Such drops would be more than compensated for by increased trade with the US.

For the record, in 2012 French exports to the United States amounted to € 26.5 billions, while French imports from the U.S. amounted to € 32.8 billion leaving France with a negative trade balance of € 6.3 billion. According to U.S. statistics, France’s share of total U.S. imports in 2012 represented only 1.8% of total U.S. imports and France stands as the 10th supplier of the U.S after Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany, UK, South Korea, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. It is clear that within the negotiations about a free trade deal France needs to engage strongly in public policy advocacy activities to defend its interests and re-energize its trade relations with the United States.

Finally the EU, for its part, must go beyond the European Commission and directly involve the European Council and heads of member states. Though negotiation of an agreement is within the Commission’s competence, movement on the key issues requires the clear support of member states. Compromise on agricultural issues or geographical indications, for example, will not occur without French and Italian support. Indeed, there have already been grumblings from France about agricultural reform and cultural subsidies.

The U.S. side has recommended that the EU and the United States  should meet periodically at senior levels after negotiations have started to review the progress of the talks. What is needed is a focused high-level meeting that brings together a small number of essential political leaders. Besides the obvious negotiators – EU trade commissioner Karel de Gucht, Commission President José Manuel Barroso, and the US Trade Representative – this group should include European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, key European heads of state, and senior Obama administration officials. Key US congressional leaders and MEPs should also be involved. A working summit would demonstrate a willingness at the highest echelons to resolve in principle the major obstacles standing in the way of an agreement. If successful, such a meeting would lay a foundation of genuine political support for efficient and effective technical negotiations. An agreement that rejuvenates the transatlantic relationship will require nothing less.