THE INSURGENT PARTIES IN THE NEXT EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

Across the EU, insurgent parties from right and left are poised to cause major upset, finishing at or near the top of their respective national votes. As a result, rejectionist parties look set to send their largest contingent of anti-European MEPs ever to the European parliament.

1. Austria: Freedom Party (24% of total votes) 4 seats
2. Belgium: Vlaams Belang (6.4% of total votes) 1 seat; Libertarian, Direct Democratic Party (?)
3. Bulgaria: Attack (?); People for Real, Open and United Democracy (?)
4. Croatia: Croatian Party of Rights dr. Ante Starcevic (?)
5. Cyprus: National People's Front (?)
6. Denmark: Danish People's Party (25.4% of total votes) 4 seats
7. Estonia: Independence Party (?)
8. Finland: Finns Party (17.6% of total votes) 3 seats
9. France: National Front (23.5% of total votes) 22 seats
10. Germany: Alternattive for Germany (6.3% of total votes) 6 seats
11. Greece: Golden Dawn (?); Popular Orthodox Rally (?)
12. Hungary: Jobbik (22.2% of total votes) 5 seats
13. Italy: I love Italia (?); Northern League (5.3% of total Votes) 4 seats; Movimento a 5 Stelle (25.4% of total votes) 21 seats
14. Lithuania: Order and Justice (?)
15. Netherlands: Freedom Party (16.5% of total votes) 5 seats; Reformed Political Party (?)
16. Poland: United Poland (?)
17. Slovakia: Slovakia National Party (?)
18. Sweden: Sweden Democrats (4.1% of total votes) 1 seat
19. United Kingdom: UKIP (31.9% of total votes) 23 seats; British National Party (?)

Three Possible Scenarios: (129, 167 or 204 seats)

1. Insurgent parties win approximately 17% of the vote, or 129 of 751 seats in the European Parliament
2. Insurgent parties mobilize more voters than established parties and such a case, they receive almost 22% of the vote, or 167 seats in the European Parliament
3. If the same persons who say they vote for Eurosceptic parties in national elections vote for them in the European elections, Insurgent parties win an impressive 27% of the vote, and can claim 204 of 751 seats in the European Parliament.

Decision-making Influencing

The influx of new MEPs from the Eurosceptic right will shake up the next European Parliament and a new political group is very likely to emerge from the ballot.

Members of the new group will probably have a free vote on most policy areas and will vote together only on specific issues concerning civil liberties, immigration policy and European integration. A very substantial minority of MEPs actively working to derail, or at the very least disrupt the parliament's work passing EU laws could come to be seen as something of a defining moment in the European project. Taken together with the ECR and GUE/NGL a greater influence will be exerted on the EU budget, crucial appointments and the sign off of legislation e.g. pertinent to the Euro. They will pull mainstream parties in government (and opposition, for that matter) into more euro-sceptic stances which is also likely to act as a drag on long-term stabilization and in many cases push through structural reforms urgently needed to boost competitiveness and growth. Mainstream groups EPP, S&D, ALDE will need to compromise and make concessions with one another in order to form a Grand Coalition outnumbering the Eurosceptics.

But the anti-EU parties' best chance of really influencing the political debate over the coming years will really be at a national level.