IMPACT OF PUTIN’S WAR ON RUSSIA

Military

1. Huge human casualties (soldiers killed in action and wounded)
2. Huge military equipment lost and detroyed

Sanctions

1. Exceptionally severe sanctions have been applied by the West on Russian elites, banks, businesses, airlines and shipping
2. Bans on trading in Russian sovereign debt have left the country isolated from international capital markets
3. Implemented SWIFT sanctions on bank transactions resulting in various increases in trade costs
4. Export restrictions on dual use and technological goods result in rising transaction costs
5. Boycotts by western companies result in export tax on electronic equipment
6. Rising transport costs, closure of airspace and boycotts by shipping companies  
7. Increase of most-favoured-nation tariffs to higher tariff rates
8. Productivity drop in the transportation sector
9. Rising tariffs on Russian imports of merchandise goods
10. Russian banks have been shut out from the international financial system, which harms their ability to operate globally and increase transaction costs.
11. Western economies have frozen US$ 600 billion of foreign exchange reserves.
12. Ban on export to Russia of sophisticated technologies – primarily those connected with the defence, aerospace and maritime sectors (e.g. semiconductors, microelectronics, telecommunications items, lasers, sensors, navigation equipment, avionics, marine equipment, aircraft components).  
13. Ban on participation of Russians in cultural and sport activities

Oil and Gas

1. North Stream 2 pipeline has been closed
2. EU determined to reduce dependence on Russian gas and fuels
3. A number of countries have started to implement bans on Russian oil and gas exports
4. Replacing Russian oil and natural gas supplies with alternative energy sources may not be possible in the short run, but the crisis may provide additional impetus to speed up the green transition to reduced reliance on fossil fuels

Economy

1. Scores of international businesses have left the Russian market.
2. Loss of foreign investors e.g. oil and gas, automotive
3. Loss of tourism
4. The Russian economy has been thrown into almost total isolation from the world economy.
5. Inflation (16.7 % in March) and unemployment is rising
6. GDP : The Russian economy is expected to contract by 11% in 2022 
7. Living standards are declining decline precipitously.
8. The value of the currency has declined by 22% this year
9. Oligarchs and superrich have lost billions of dollars in the stock market as a result of the ruble’s devaluation.

Security

1. The war has significantly worsened Russia’s security.
2. Moscow will have to endure a long and costly arms race. The West will set itself the task of making the most of its obvious economic and technological advantages in order to devalue Russia’s military potential, both nuclear and conventional, over time. The competition with Moscow in various qualitative parameters of armaments will only intensify.
3. NATO has been mobilized and galvanized. Today, NATO is much stronger than Russia in most military-technical parameters.
4. U.S. troops and military equipment have been deployed in greater numbers to several NATO states
5. European cooperation with the United States has improved
6. Finland and Sweden are interested in joining the alliance
7. Almost all European states including neutral Switzerland and Sweden are providing Ukraine with some form of military assistance.

Soft Power

1. Russia has become a pariah and a rogue.
2. Russia’s citizens are unwelcome in many parts of the world.
3. Russia has lost whatever soft power it possessed, and it may require decades to improve its image and reputation.
4. Moscow has virtually no allies or—at least—sympathetic observers left in the West.
5. Russia faces an inevitable and a likely long pause in high-level political dialogue. In the foreseeable future, the Kremlin is unlikely to see a string of presidents, prime ministers, chancellors, and foreign ministers waiting in line to meet with Russian leaders. Partial political and diplomatic boycott by the West seems likely; in some cases, it will be complemented by closures of diplomatic missions, recalls of ambassadors and even severance of diplomatic relations.
6. Russia will consistently be pushed away from the existing and emerging global technological chains—ones that define the transition of the world economy to a new technological mode. To this end, efforts will be made to limit the participation of Russian scientists in international research projects through creating obstacles for the activities of joint ventures in the field of high technology as well as for high-tech exports from Russia (and imports to Russia). As a result, Moscow’s technological cooperation with the West will decline, while Russia’s technological dependence on China will increase.
7. There will be a fierce struggle between Moscow and the West for the minds and hearts of the rest of the world, especially in the countries of the Global South.  Russia will be presented as a country that has challenged the fundamental norms of international law, undermining the foundations of global—rather than merely European—security. The strategic goal will be to isolate Russia on the world stage as much as possible, as this will supposedly set limits on Moscow’s ability to diversify its foreign policy, economic and other ties, partially making up for the damage caused by the collapse of cooperation with the West.