GLOOMY IPCC FEBRUARY 2022 REPORT

On 28 February 2022 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report.

• The climate breakdown is occurring quicker than anticipated and at current levels, many parts of the planet will become unlivable in the next few decades.
• The world must cut its total emissions by 45% by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe. At current levels, global emissions will increase by almost 14% over this period. If this is the case, we will have to adapt to irreversible impacts such as melting ice caps, frequent and intense weather events, and immense biodiversity and ecosystem loss. The report finds that between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people more than 40% of the world’s population live in places and in situations that are “highly vulnerable to climate change”. Some are already experiencing the effects of climate change, which vary by region and are driven by factors such as geography, how that region is governed and its socio-economic status. The report also references for the first time “historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism” that contribute to many regions’ vulnerability to climate change
• Climate change has already caused death and suffering across the world, and it will continue to do so. In addition to contributing to deaths by helping to trigger disasters such as fires and heatwaves, it has affected public health in various ways. Smoke inhalation from fires has contributed to cardiovascular and respiratory problems, for instance, and increased rainfall and flooding has led to the spread of diseases such as cholera. Mental-health issues, tied to the trauma of living through extreme events and to loss of livelihood and culture, are also on the rise.
• If global temperatures rise by more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, some environmental changes could become irreversible, depending on the magnitude and duration of the ‘overshoot’ beyond this threshold. In forests and Arctic permafrost zones that act as carbon dioxide reservoirs, for instance, extreme global warming could lead to the release of excess carbon emissions, which would in turn drive further warming a self-perpetuating cycle.
• Sustainable economic development must include protection for biodiversity and natural ecosystems, which secure resources such as fresh water and coastlines that shield against the effects of storms. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that maintaining the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystems as the climate warms will depend on “effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30% to 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean areas”.
• Small island states, and coastal areas are among the worst affected, with storms and rising sea levels already wreaking havoc. Vulnerable communities are especially exposed: between 2010 and 2020, droughts, floods, and storms killed 15-times as many people in highly vulnerable countries in Africa, South Asia and South America as in wealthier nations.
• Worryingly, critical ecosystems are losing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide, turning peatlands and forests from carbon sinks into carbon sources. The thawing of permafrost will release additional GHGs into the atmosphere, accelerating warming.
• The report informs us how an already fragile planet and socioeconomic system will become even more unstable if enough isn’t done to curb climate change.
• Climate migration is already commonplace in many countries, and places like West Africa could see up to 32 million people forced to move by 2050 due to climate factors. Droughts, meanwhile, are becoming the norm for many sustenance farming communities and climate-linked food insecurity is leading to famine.
• Unless we collectively undertake a value-based transformational shift to change economic models and policies responsible for these catastrophes, such events will continue to emerge – and worsen in scale.
• Developing countries, particularly those in the global south, are hit hardest by climate change. This is widening the economic gap between nations and furthers inequality among peoples.
• Only half of IPCC member countries have adaptation measures worked into their climate strategies. These include flood barriers, drought-resistant crops, and early-warning storm systems. The report states that such measures may not be sufficient to prepare for future threats. We need total transformational change in our planning, building, consuming, and systems.
• The report admits that we’re already gone past some tipping points. COP27, to be held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, later in 2022, will certainly draw the spotlight to scaling up finance for adaptation. This IPCC report shows just how critical this will be.
• Companies, too, must have adaptation plans in place, incorporating both a risk and opportunity lens. From a risk management perspective, insurance companies are already paying record claim amounts, with US insurers forking out $ 42 billion for natural disaster damages in the first half of 2021. With insurance companies ramping up their risk estimations, companies across all industries must adjust their climate strategies accordingly to respond to emerging risks.
• In as far as opportunities are concerned, companies have an important role to play in supporting a just climate transition through their global value chains by collaborating with suppliers in vulnerable markets - both supporting them in adapting to the certain impacts of climate change while also future-proofing and building resilience into operations.
• The IPCC is blunt in its warning: if we continue to follow the current pollutive economic model, things will get much, much worse for the planet and humanity. The flip side is that if we do take drastic action and the public and private sector tag-team in the boxing ring against this formidable opponent, we can turn this crisis into an opportunity.
• Climate-resilient development means putting adaptation and mitigation next to each other while stressing sustainable, inclusive development. Key players, including governments, leading businesses, the finance community, indigenous knowledge holders and community leaders, should have a shared vision of how we can not only bring climate change to heel but create a world that is safe, stable, and just.