GLOBAL ELECTIONS IN 2024

A wave of elections in geopolitically significant markets representing about 54% of the global population and nearly 60% of global GDP will occur in 2024. These elections will be held amid already heightened mistrust in governments. Such dynamics, combined with nationalist and populist trends and polarizing issues, increase the risk of social unrest surrounding elections. This global elections super cycle will generate regulatory and policy uncertainty, with long-term implications for industrial strategies, climate policies and ongoing military conflicts.

Alphabetical Review

1. Botswana
2. Europe: The citizens of the 27 EU member states will vote in June European Parliament elections. The outcome will impact EU policies for climate regulation and migration, support for Ukraine, and its China “de-risking” strategy.
3. Ghana
4. India: The biggest election will be in India in May and June, when citizens representing 1.4 billion people will vote. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will face a new opposition alliance of more than 20 parties. The election debates are likely to revolve around economic policies and nationalist attitudes. Whether the next government has a majority in parliament will determine the speed and scope of policies supporting India’s infrastructure and manufacturing sectors.
5. Indonesia: Indonesia’s elections in February have heightened global significance given its role in the critical minerals supply chain.
6. Mexico: Mexican voters will decide between the ruling Morena party and the opposition alliance, Frente Amplio por México (FAM), in June. The next government will impact the direction of the country’s energy policies and influence foreign investment attractiveness amid nearshoring and friendshoring trends.
7. Mozambique
8. Russia: Russia is scheduled to hold presidential elections in March 2024.
9. Rwanda
10. Senegal
11. South Africa: South Africans will vote in general elections in the second quarter, amid longstanding concerns over corruption, economic opportunities and infrastructure challenges.
12. South Korea: South Korea’s legislative elections will determine whether President Yoon Suk Yeol will have greater ability to secure labor market and regulatory reforms
13. South Sudan
14. Taiwan: The outcome of Taiwan’s January presidential election will affect economic and political relations with Mainland China and broader geopolitical dynamics.
15. United Kingdom: The UK is likely to hold parliamentary elections (due by January 2025), which may affect post-Brexit trade matters, energy transition policies and taxation.
16. United States: In November, the US will hold presidential elections.  Campaign dynamics could exacerbate an already polarized electorate and increase volatility for businesses during the election cycle. The outcome of the elections could lead to far-reaching shifts on domestic and foreign policy issues, including on climate change, regulations and global alliances
17. Venezuela: The extent to which opposition candidates are able to participate in its May presidential election will impact its diplomatic and commercial relations.