EUROSCEPTIC FRANCE IS COMING

The near-certain victory of Le Pen’s RN in snap general elections could prove near as damaging for the EU, posing existential questions about France’s role and severely constraining the bloc’s capacity to get things done.

A hung parliament could slow down decision-making in a bloc already struggling to find accord on policies from nature protection to future EU spending

Even without an absolute majority, the far right in the French parliament will see to promote its European vision: a “Europe of Nations”, with more powers returned to the capitals. RN has said it wants to withhold € 2 to € 3 billion of France’s financial contribution to the EU. The French reduction in contribution will serve to fund tax reductions on French power, gas and fuel retail prices.

The RN aims to legislate a “national preference” for French businesses and agriculture, in breach of the rules of the European single market, review EU free trade agreements that do not “respect” France, and prevent any further enlargement of the EU.  

The party’s anti-EU agenda could imperil tentative hopes for more common EU borrowing to fund defense or the green transition.

RN’s opposition to EU decision-making would make it “very hard” to complete banking or capital markets union, let alone move to a common defense policy.

The RN will seek to opt out of European power market rules and negotiate with the European Commission an exemption from the European electricity market, to get out of price-setting rules and allow France to go back to a French electricity price. Germany and the EC artificially decide to peg the price of electricity in France to the price of the last power station needed, in other words, to gas and the RN is calling for a French power price that reflects nuclear production costs. Meanwhile, setting a French price which was disconnected from the EU market would either mean paying a profit to power producers or not paying them enough. “If the price does not cover production costs, EDF will have to sell at a loss, but if EDF sells at a profit, it would be bad for consumers who would pay more than they should.

While Macron as president would remain in charge of foreign policy, in practice, government ministers play a vital role in drawing up, EU laws, whether on green policies or migration.

France’s national assembly controls the country’s cheque book, meaning an RN government could jeopardize France’s future aid for Ukraine. In January 2024, 56% of French people thought French and European politics were broken.