EUROPEAN ELECTIONS 2014: A TENTATIVE PROGNOSIS

The next European Parliament Elections are approaching quickly. During 22-25 May 2014 citizens of the 28 EU member states will get the chance to elect their representatives to the European Parliament during 2014-2019.  
 

A lot is at stake during these elections and the new election outcomes could have serious consequence to European development policies. The rise of populist, nationalist, extremist and sometimes xenophobic parties and movements with simplistic solutions and inflammatory rhetoric is a Europe-wide phenomenon, with many different manifestations. In some countries a party of the extreme right could be making a major breakthrough securing representation for the first time. Elsewhere the radical populist left could make the running, or new forms of protest, one-issue parties for example could gain support, however, momentary

The fortunes of these parties- often loosely or poorly organized may fade before next year, but they will undoubtedly be boosted by a protest vote or by apathy towards the mainstream parties or the election process itself. This could result in election outcomes that greatly change the political landscape of the European politics. Some fear that the next European Parliament could be made up of up to 30-40% of extremist, racist, populist or generally anti-establishment party groups.

There are several reasons why nationalism or extremism may surface in the 2014 elections: First, in the eyes of most voters, the European Parliament does not command as much relevance and esteem as national parliaments. Hence, the fear-driven resistance to such populism could dissipate as voters let off some steam without consequence. Turnout in European Parliament elections is relatively low- only 43% in 2009, giving extra power to those motivated by anger and protest. The toxic atmosphere surrounding the long economic downturn could play into the hands of various national populist parties that have been unsuccessful in national balloting.

Austria: The Austrian Freedom Party won two seats at the 2009 elections. It is in a weaker position today than in 2009 but the national list system of proportional representation should ensure they win at least two seats next year.

Belgium: The Belgian Vlaams Belang that belonged to a previous far-right group in the Parliament is likely to win at least one seat next year.

Bulgaria: Attack Coalition (Ataka) won two seats at the 2009 elections. It is in weaker position today than in 2009 but the national list systel of proportional representation should ensure that they win two seats next year.

France: In France, the weakness of the Socialist Party and President François Hollande, combined with the infighting within the center-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party of former President Nicolas Sarkozy, might well hand a victory to the National Front (FN). The FN leader Marine Le Pen, has deftly adopted British Prime Minister David Cameron's strategy of proposing a referendum on the euro without explicitly campaigning against the common currency. The Front National could win a minimum of 15 and maximum of 17 seats next year.

Greece: The neo-Nazi and racist Golden Dawn might to well enough in the European parliamentary voting to see one or more of its members elected. Based on Golden Dwan 10% poll rating, it could win three seats next year.  How parliamentarians from other European countries would respond to the election of  representatives of a genuinely neo-Nazi and often violent political party remains to be seen.

Hungary: Jobbik is an anti-semitic and ultra-nationalist party. Based on its consistent 15 % national poll rating, it could have three or four seats next year.

Italy:  The economic weakness of Italy might linger next year and a new electoral law might be in the offing. In addition, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may be banned from public office, making a reconstitution of mainstream center-left  and center-right parties likely. Bepe Grillo, the comedian turned politician who heads the Five Star Movement, might thrive in such an environment even while doing less well in national elections.

Romania: Greater Romania won three seats in 2009 but the national list system of proportional representation should ensure they win at least two seats next year.

Sweden: The Swedish Democrats won 20 seats in the 2010 Swedish general election.

United Kingdom: The United Kingdom Independent Party (UKIP) could take advantage of the fact that the European elections are decided by proportional representation. The UKIP has been handicapped in national elections by the difficulty of winning seats in first-past-the-pole contests. Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader is already a member of the European Parliament. The United Kingdom Independent Party won two seats in 2009.

Based on the above, the far-right will once again be able to constitute a formal political group inside the European Parliament. Forming a political group comes with distinct advantages for MEPs in terms of securing access to speaking time in set-piece debates, additional funding for promotional activities in their home constituencies and additional staff to assist them with their workload. In order to form a political group, a party needs to have at least 25 MEPs representing a quarter of European Union member states (that equals seven out of 27 in the 2014 Parliament that will be expanded to include Croatia).

Tentative Profiling:

The European parliament in 2014 might well contain more nationalists and populists than today. Ultimately, though, it seems unlikely that the European parliamentary elections next year will produce a negative majority of nationalist, anti-European MEPs. More probable is a working majority retained by the traditional pan-European parties- the center-right European Peoples Party (EPP) and center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) under pressure from the extremists and facing difficulty in running things smoothly. A much reduced EPP-S&D majority might make the centrist grand coalition vulnerable to defections on many parliamentary votes, making the European Union more ungovernable than it is today.

Such difficulties would matter on important topics over which the European Parliament holds co-decision rights under the Lisbon Treaty. If for example, the U.S-EU free trade agreement negotiations are not completed by November 2014 (target date), a new elected European Parliament might resist ratification of it. The same would of course be true with other trade agreements and regulations concerning the banking union.

An uncertain future could force the current EPP-S&D majority to work more closely together in the next parliamentary session, despite the intentions of some European politicians to compete fiercely in the next election. Faced with an anti-EU populist tide, attempts to establish pan-European center-right, center-left, liberal or Green parties and have them compete continent-wide may have to be abandoned.

So as things stand now, there is a serious risk that the comfortably clear majority for the mainstream consensus on Europe could be significantly weakened in the 2014 elections. This in turn will make it more difficult to find the majorities necessary to pass legislation, more difficult to adopt the budget and will render the whole exercise of electing the new Commission an institutional and political minefield.

The popular disaffection with the Union is having a more insidious effect. It is draining away support from the bold new initiatives which alone can restore credibility to the project. So the decision-makers now tend to shy away from any maesure which requires popular support or backing from national parliaments. What the Union suffers from now is a collective crisis of confidence which is sapping its will to do 'what it takes' to save the euro, to stimulate growth and jobs and to move the Union forward. There is now at play a vicious spiral which could if not reversed prove life-threatening for the Union itself.