EUROPE’S FUTURE IN BALANCE IN 2017

According to Wolfgang Ischinger, Chaiman of the Munich Security Conference and Professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, 2017 could be the most consequential for Europe since the Berlin Wall fell, or even since the end of World War II.

1. Unprecedented uncertainties regarding the transatlantic relationship, including the reliability of the NATO alliance. A less predictable global context will also make economic growth in Europe, often elusive to begin with, less likely.
2. Depending on how the Trump Administration intends to approach Russia, we may see growing transatlantic and intra-European rifts, not least over sanctions and what to do about Ukraine.
3. There is a real risk that the U.S. might seek to deal with European allies on a bilateral basis rather than through established channels like the EU and NATO maybe even trying to pit individual states against one another, with potentially devastating consequences.
4. European politics are at a critical juncture. Key moments come on April 23 and May 7, when France votes in two rounds of presidential elections. If the far-right National Front's Marine Le Pen defies expectations to win, the EU could start to disintegrate.
5. A poorly organized Brexit, which is due to be triggered before April, would hurt not only Britain but the EU as well.
6. Elections in the Netherlands in March and perhaps in Italy next year could strengthen extremists and make governing in Brussels more difficult.
7. The financial/euro crisis could return with force, in Greece or in Italy.
8. Unresolved disagreements over how to handle mass migration will continue. If relations between Turkey and the EU break down, the flow of migrants will resume, even stronger than before.
9. In Germany, the most stable of major European countries so far, the politics of migration is likely to get uglier and more divisive, especially ahead of elections in the fall.
10. Vulnerability to cyberattacks. Disinformation, including leaks affecting the credibility of political leaders, may erode the public's trust in established leadership.
11. Current political trends do not favor moderate Europeans: the center is shrinking. Mainstream parties of the center-left and center-right have to form coalitions, but their inability to deliver substantial economic growth strengthens the radical right. The politics of Europe will continue to move rightward, especially in the event of a major terrorist attack with links to migrants.
12. Advocates of meaningful cooperation, free trade and open societies will have an even harder time making their case.