ENLARGEMENT FATIGUE: A SERIOUS ISSUE FOR THE EU

The EU asserts that the enlargement door remains open to any European country that is able to meet and implement the political and economic criteria for membership. The remaining Western Balkan states of Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo are all recognized as potential EU candidates but their accession prospects and timetables vary. Most analysts believe that it will likely be many more years before any of these countries are ready to join the EU. Nevertheless, the EU hopes that the possibility of membership will help accelerate reforms and promote greater stability in these and other states interested in eventual EU accession. Countries such as Ukraine and Georgia have also expressed long-term EU aspirations.

On the other hand, “enlargement fatigue” has become a serious issue in Europe. Although the EU has enlarged to Croatia and will most likely expand to include some of the other Western Balkan countries (Montenegro, Serbia), experts assert that a number of European leaders and many EU citizens remain cautious about further EU enlargement. This is especially true with respect to Turkey or the countries of “wider Europe,” usually considered to include Ukraine, Moldova, and the southern Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan). EU officials increasingly stress that the process of enlargement must take into account the Union’s “integration capacity.” In other words, acceding countries must be ready and able to fully assume the obligations of EU membership, and additional EU enlargement must not endanger the ability of the EU’s institutions to function effectively or render EU financing arrangements unsustainable.

Apprehensions about continued EU enlargement seem to be driven by several issues. Some EU policymakers and European publics have long worried that the addition of nations with weak economies and low incomes could lead to an influx of low-cost or unwanted migrant labor.

The addition of large countries like Turkey or Ukraine could also have substantial financial consequences for the Union’s budget and regional assistance programmes, as well as implications for the functioning of certain EU institutions. Some key EU member states may fear that an ever expanding Union could ultimately weaken their ability to set the tone and agenda in EU institutions and to drive EU policies. Moreover, doubts persist about the ability of some potential EU aspirants to implement EU standards, especially in areas related to the rule of law, fundamental rights, and anti-corruption measures.

Another broad European concern with respect to ongoing enlargement is with the overall identity of Europe, what the Union stands for, and where “Europe” ends. Some in the EU question whether countries like Ukraine or those of the southern Caucasus should be considered as part of “Europe,” or whether their geography, history, and culture make them distinct. Many experts believe that enlargement may soon be reaching its limits and that the EU is unlikely to include the countries of “wider Europe” for the foreseeable future.

Moreover, commentators suggest that the EU’s recent financial problems and sovereign deb crisi which have hit the countries of the Eurozone particularly hard could potentially slow future rounds of EU enlargement. They note that EU leaders are grappling not only with trying to remedy the Eurozone’s financial troubles, but also with uncertainty about the future direction of the EU itself.

As a result, they may be less inclined to robustly push forward the enlargement agenda. Conversely, the EU’s economic difficulties might make joining the Union and ultimately the common currency less attractive for some current and potential EU candidates. For decades, many countries aspired to join the EU largely for the economic benefits that membership would bring. If financial instability in the Eurozone persists, however, some aspirants such as Turkey with a rapidly expanding and dynamic economy may not view the benefits of membership as outweighing the potential constraints on its sovereignty and national fiscal and monetary policies.