THE EMERGING EAST-WEST CONFLICT

The European Union's Partnership Programme aims for stability, prosperity and social development in its immediate neighborhood. Aware of its attractiveness, the EU offers those countries stronger relationships without promising EU membership and urges them to undertake sustainable reforms.

Recently, the EU policy in Eastern Europe has triggered harsh reactions in Moscow. Russia sees itself excluded and marginalized from Europe. It assumes geopolitical interests by the EU and threatens the Eastern Partnership countries with unequivocal sanctions(trade sanctions, energy supply interruptions, and security reprisals). Latest trade restrictions against Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania indicate rising tensions, since they are considered retaliation measures by Russia against aspirations of independence from Ukraine. Apparently, the EU's Association Agreement on the one hand, and the customs union with Russia on the other hand are competing models of integration. A new East-West conflict has emerged after the supposedly inclusive approach of the EU along the framework of the Eastern Partnership. The choice for Europe or Russia emphasizes the dividing elements and ignores the connecting ones. The common interest in stability and prosperity in Eastern Europe therefore fades, the Vilnius Summit on Eastern Europe directs focus away from a transformation strategy which is created for consensus and long term objectives.

Lithuania will host the 3rd Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius on 28-29th November 2013. This will be the biggest multilateral political event during Lithuania’s Presidency. 28 highest representatives of the EU member states and the six Eastern partners  (Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Moldova and Azerbaijan) as well as representatives of the EU institutions are expected to be in Vilnius.

The Eastern Partnership initiative was established as a way to strengthen bilateral and multilateral cooperation with these countries, to support their ongoing reforms and bring them closer to the European Union.

In Vilnius the EU is hoping to see the signature of the Association Agreement with Ukraine. The EU also wants to see the finalisation of negotiations on Association Agreements, including Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas, with Moldova, Georgia and Armenia which could lead to the initialling of the Association Agreements by Vilnius.

The EU still needs to resolve some fundamental ambiguities over what the Eastern Partnership is really designed to achieve. Until these are addressed, the signing of agreements and work programs will be woefully insufficient for an Eastern strategy. Better geostrategy in the East is not a matter of the EU mimicking Russia but delivering in more tangible ways on its own tenets. To build a more sustainable power balance, the EU should not give Russia any further incentives to delve deeper into tit-for-tat power struggles.