DISPATCHING DEFENSIVE WEAPONS TO UKRAINE IS NOT THE SOLUTION

In comparison to Russia, Ukraine faces a gap in defence capabilities so enormous that it is difficult to exaggerate. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the best source of data for comparing defence spending, in 2013 Ukraine’s total military budget was a mere 6% of Russia’s ($5.3bn versus $87bn). And that is just the headline spending figures. While Russia’s military industrial complex is obviously not free of corruption, evidence suggests that the levels of graft inside Ukraine’s Yanukovych-era army reached truly pharaonic proportions: billions upon billions of dollars from the (already paltry) defence budget simply vanished into thin air.

In the early weeks of the crisis the Ukrainian army was so desperately short of money and fuel that it had to resort to a public fundraising drive. Getting Ukrainian military capabilities to a level at which they would present a reasonable deterrence to Russia would take assistance orders of huge magnitude . To put it bluntly, in order to be even a rough match for the Russian army, Ukraine would need at least $5bn per year in additional defence spending. The Ukrainian economy can’t come up with that kind of money, and the West isn’t going to either.

In the meantime, though, the only thing that military assistance will accomplish is the following:

1. It will make Ukrainian leaders somewhat more willing to risk the renewal of a military conflict that they will not be able to win.
2. Military aid would prolong an already bloody and catastrophic conflict, and
3. Risk even further escalation from Russia, which has made it abundantly clear that it will do whatever it takes to prevent a battlefield defeat of the rebels in eastern Ukraine. Russia will simply send more troops and arms, furthering casualties, furthering the anger of the Russian people towards the West. Direct confrontation between the US and Russia is possible.

Buying the Ukrainians new tanks might feel like it’s very “serious” and “tough,” but it is actually the worst of both worlds: it wastes increasingly scarce Western resources, while simultaneously limiting the crisis to narrow military terms where Russia possesses an unassailable advantage.

There are no easy answers in Ukraine, no quick fixes to a situation that has spiralled out of control. One thing is clear, though: military aid will do nothing to resolve the conflict and is very likely to enflame it.