DEALING WITH VICTOR ORBAN

Increasingly the war in Ukraine has left Victor Orban isolated in Europe. Orban, as the EU's longest-serving current head of government, has become one of the heroes of the populist far right across the world. Erstwhile European partners have condemned Orban's reluctance to take action against Russia or even critizise Russian aggression in Ukraine. He did reluctantly go along with EU sanctions on Russia, but refused to extend them to Russian oil and gas. Orban has also declared that Hungary would pay for Russian gas in rubles, as Putin has demanded. This, however, is in violation of EU sanctions.

Hungary cannot credibly claim it remains a democracy. It violates a host of EU rules and regulations. The European Commission has invoked its new rule-of-law disciplinary procedure. This could see Budapest lose access to as much as € 40 billion in vital EU funding. The lucrative EU funding pipeline that Orban has gratefully fed off could be turne off. Brussels correctly argues that Hungary has reneged on its EU accession commitments to a free press, an independent judiciary and an open economy, while also failing to tackle corruption.

Hungary has been an outlier in the EU in many issues, including Russia, but also through its support for Israel's oppression of the Palestinians. Here again, on occasions, Budapest could rely on support from the other Visegrad Group of states that share his illiberal approach, but none of them are happy at Hungary's position on Russia. This four-country network of Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia has been ripped apart- a relief one suspects in many Western capitals.

The more likely scenario is that the Hungarian prime minister will find himself isolated in the EU like never before, at least for the next few months while Ukraine remains a pivotal issue. EU states can cut off his euros and then ignore Orban, putting him under his own lockdown. He will no longer be the center of attention, but a figure to be deprived of influence and attention. The ultranationalist Orban will face a choice between maintaining his self-described "illiberal democracy" and close ties with Russia or being a full member of the EU.

For Europe, it shows that the dividing lines and areas of tension have shifted, for the time being, from identity politics and anti-immigration and anti-Muslim policies to how states line up towards Russia. The lession for many EU leaders is that they have been too soft on autocrats like Orban. In this contest, the disempowerment of the Hungarian leader will be a major triumph for those who crave a Europe that is open and respectful of all peoples. It will also be a blow to all aspirant autocrats and nativists in Europe.

Note

At present, the EU does not have the power to expel a member state, and treaty changes to acquire that power could be blocked by the government of any member state that thought this mechanism might be used against it.

Hungary is viewed as a weak link in the EU's response to Russia. Hungary outside the EU might become more authoritarian and seek a closer relationship with Russia than it would inside the EU. It would likely become closer yo next-door neighbor and already close partner and Putin sympathiser Serbia. The EU provides an exit-route for member states if they want to take it. But if a member state has not taken that route, then the EU should not push it out of the exit door and deprive its citizens of their Union citizenship, even if many of them are currently supporting a government that is a serial law breaker. National sentiments and national governments change, and the EU is in for the long haul.

That said, the EU mist be ready to impose sanctions if a member state opts for serious and serial-law breaking. If a national government gives itself a holiday from its EU obligations, it should know that its country will lose some of its rights as an EU member state. And the citizens of that state should know that too, so that they can make connections between the way they vote in elections and the relegation of their country to second-class economic and political status in the EU.

The EU has ways of putting pressure on rule-breaking EU member states. One is to impose a fine on a member state if it refuses to comply with a judgment of the EU's Court of Justice. Another is loss of funding under the new so-called conditionality regulation if it breaches the rule of law in a way that affects the EU budget.There is another and potentially more hard)hitting weapon at the disposal of the EU-suspending some of the EU rights of a member state, including voting rights for serious breaches of core values.