THE DEAL THE U.S., NATO AND UKRAINE CAN OFFER PUTIN

1. Ukraine and NATO pledge that Ukraine will not become a NATO member. Ideally, this pledge would have a time horizon, for example, 10 years. This looks like a major concession but, in fact, concedes little. The European members of NATO worry that bringing Ukraine into the alliance would set them up for a conflict with Russia that they are unprepared for militarily and their publics don't support. Their concerns before the conflict deferred action on Ukrainian membership, despite public expressions of support. There is no way that Ukraine would become a NATO member after the current conflict.
2. Ukraine continues as an independent country with a government of its own choosing. That means that President Zelensky would remain in power, and democratic institutions would continue. This would be the key concession by Russia and an inflexible demand of the Ukrainians. After the unifying experience of invasion and war, the Ukrainian people would not accept a Putin-aligned regime or major changes to their institutions.
3. Ties to NATO would be severed. Ukraine currently has many ties to NATO even though it is not a member. A neutral Ukraine would mean severing those ties—no trainers, no liaison operations, and especially no NATO troops. This is a difficult concession because it would weaken military preparedness. However, Putin would likely insist on it since he feels NATO is militarily encroaching on his eastern boundaries. The deal might allow trainers and logistics support from neutral sources or independent contractors to strengthen the Ukrainian military.
4. Ukraine buys weapons from a variety of sources in the future. This reassures Russia that there would not be a back door to NATO military presence. It's not much of a concession since most of Ukraine's weapons are Soviet now. Such a policy would continue Ukraine's fielding of a mix of weaponry.
5. The breakaway provinces in the Donbas are not recognized as independent states. Both sides agree to renew the Minsk agreements which aimed to end the fighting in the eastern provinces and reach a settlement. Putin is not going to give up these breakaway provinces, and Ukraine cannot accept their independence. As an interim measure, a settlement might roll back the declaration of their independence or negotiate a mechanism by which Russia recognizes them but no one else does. This might be arranged through a U.N. resolution to that effect and for which Russia agrees to abstain. This would also give the U.N. a role in the peace effort. Although the Minsk agreements have been unsuccessful in ending the conflict in the eastern provinces, they would provide a mechanism to defer settlement of this local conflict so it does not prevent ending the larger war.
6. Russia withdraws all its forces from Ukraine. The United States and NATO withdraw their forces in parallel. Russia needs to withdraw all its forces since the agreement would provide for an independent Ukraine. Russia cannot leave any "peacekeepers" behind. In return, as Russia withdraws its forces from Ukraine, the United States and NATO withdraw the forces they sent forward into Eastern Europe and return them to their permanent bases.

The United States cannot impose such a deal on Ukraine. The Ukrainians must take the lead in negotiating it and support the outcome. Their desperate pleas to end the fighting indicate that they might be willing to make such a deal.

When there is a change of regime in Russia, Ukraine and Russia can negotiate a new deal. The advantage of the approach described here is that the fighting and destruction would end now. Further, Ukrainians would have the guarantee of an independent state and not risk Russian victory and occupation. Many in the West seem keen to fight the war to the end, but the Ukrainians would bear a heavy price. Better to make a deal with Putin now.