DANGEROUS ESCALATION

Nearly a quarter-century after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West faces a greater threat from the East than at any point during the cold war. The war of words between America and Russia is escalating. So, too, is the movement of implements of war -- from U.S. fighter jets to Russian nuclear weapons.

The rhetoric and actions from both sides have definitely ratcheted up in recent days, raising concerns of a new arms race -- if not worse -- amid tensions both sides blame on each other. The major players all claim their movements are defensive and necessary responses to their foe's provocation. The biggest fear is what things can happen, accidentally, when increasingly powerful military forces lined up so close to each other. As there are more interactions, there are  more possibilities for things to go wrong.

Russia accuses NATO countries of "sliding into a new military confrontation with destructive consequences." Russia feels threatened not by any individual European state, but by the European Union and NATO, which it regards as expansionist..

U.S. officials are particularly concerned by large-scale Russian military exercises near Ukraine set to take place this summer. Western officials believe that they need to respond in kind -- and that's come in the form of increased NATO military exercises with Baltic allies like Estonia and the latest American plans to send artillery to bases in the region.

By next year Russia’s defence spending will have tripled in nominal terms since 2007, and it will be halfway through a ten-year, 20 trillion rouble ($300 billion) programme to modernise its weapons. New types of missiles, bombers and submarines are being readied for deployment over the next few years. Spending on defence and security is expected to climb by 30% this year and swallow more than a third of the federal budget. As well as money for combat aircraft, helicopters, armoured vehicles and air-defence systems, about a third of the budget has been earmarked to overhaul Russia’s nuclear forces. A revised military doctrine identifies the reinforcement of NATO’s offensive capacities directly on Russia’s borders, and measures taken to deploy a global anti-missile defence system in central Europe as the greatest threats Russia faces.

A pattern of provocation has been established that includes a big increase in the number of close encounters involving Russian aircraft and naval vessels, and snap exercises by Russian forces close to NATO’s northern and eastern borders. Last year NATO planes carried out more than 400 intercepts of Russian aircraft. More than 150 were by the alliance’s beefed-up Baltic air-policing mission—four times as many as in 2013. Hot identifications and interdictions occurred along the Lithuanian border. Latvia recorded more than 150 incidents of Russian planes entering its airspace. There have also been at least two near-misses between Russian military aircraft and Swedish airliners. On 28 January two Russian, possibly nuclear-armed, strategic bombers flew down the English Channel, causing havoc to commercial aviation. Such behaviour is intended to test Western air defences, and was last seen in the cold war.

Political restraint is called for on both sides to avoid dramatic confrontation .