CONSEQUENCES OF CRIMEA’s JOINING RUSSIA

The biggest headache is geographical: Crimea has no land border with Russia. The closest link is a windswept ferry crossing in the far north-eastern corner of Crimea that connects Kerch with the Russian mainland. A bridge will have to be built across the 4.5-kilometer wide Strait of Kerch to mother Russia but that's a multi-year project.

Military: There are still thousands of Ukrainian troops based in Crimea, and for many of them it is home. Their fate is far from clear. The new Crimean authorities say they can stay in uniform if they swear allegiance to Crimea, or leave. Those wishing to "return" to Ukraine would be given safe passage, without their weapons.

Money: Crimea plans to have its own central bank, tied closely to that of Russia, and adopt the ruble as the official currency in April. In practical terms, it's likely that some banks in Crimea will start working in rubles while others -- for the time-being -- will use the hryvnia. The new Crimean leader, Sergei Aksyonov, says he expects Crimea to be a dual-currency state for a while, and the regional parliament voted Monday to allow the hryvnia to remain an official currency until 2016. The Russian Deputy Finance Minister, Sergei Shatalov, has floated the idea of a special tax regime for Crimea while the new authorities adapt laws and tax regulations to conform with those of Russia and businesses and properties are re-registered. But Crimea will also need an infusion of Russian cash, especially if Western sanctions extend beyond visa restrictions and asset freezes for a few prominent individuals and start impacting businesses in Crimea. In the past the region has received hefty subsidies from the Ukrainian government as one of the poorer parts of the country. The average wage in Crimea is $240 a month, far lower than that of Russia, according to data from the Ukrainian State Statistics Committee. Analysts say Russia may have to pump from $1 to $3 billion each year into the Crimean government's budget if pensions and other benefits are to be raised to Russian levels - at a time when several other Russian regions are close to insolvent.

Water and power: Between 80 and 90% of Crimea's water comes from Ukraine. A canal brings water supplies from the Dnieper River across the Isthmus of Perekop and into the Crimean peninsula. With warm, dry summers and low rainfall (15 inches a year), Crimea needs that water to irrigate its arable land. Ukraine says it has no intention of cutting off water supplies, perhaps because it in turn relies on Russia as a source of natural gas (and owes Russian provider Gazprom $2 billion on that debt). To cut off Crimea's water would look like a vindictive and indiscriminate gesture from a country desperate for western support. Russia could build a water pipeline under the Kerch Strait into Crimea, using water from the Kuban River, but it would be an expensive long-term project.

Two-thirds of the peninsula's gas supplies come from the Ukrainian state-owned supplier Chernomorneftegaz. Crimea's coal-fired power plants supply only one-tenth of the electricity it needs. The rest comes from Ukraine. If Russia had to supply Crimea with most of its power needs, pipelines and pylons would have to be built.

Energy resources: The Crimean parliament has passed a resolution to seize the assets in Crimea of two Ukrainian energy producers. One is the state-owned Chernomorneftegaz, which has drilling rigs off Crimea's west coast and in the Sea of Azov. The parliament's resolution said the takeover would include ownership of the region's "continental shelf and the exclusive (maritime) economic zone." This could be very problematic. While a land border would look relatively straightforward (even if rejected by Kiev), disputes on maritime boundaries would not, as Crimea's coastline is dotted by islands and spits of land. The Black and Azov Seas are estimated to hold nearly 60 trillion cubic feet of gas. Several offshore fields being developed are close to both Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland and may become a flashpoint as the crisis evolves.

Time zones: The new leadership in Crimea has already announced that on March 30 it will align the republic with Moscow time -- two hours ahead of Ukraine's in winter months. This would mean dark mornings in Simferopol. On New Year's Day, the sun rises at 7:22am in Simferopol. In the new time-zone it would rise at 9:22am.

Food: Most foodstuffs and household goods are coming from, or through, Ukraine. The profit motive and consumer demand may be enough to ensure this flow continues, but much depends on whether the new border hastily being drawn across northern Crimea becomes a regular European crossing or a grim reminder of the frontier that once divided the continent.

The port of Sevastopol provides Crimea with an alternative but likely more expensive import-export hub. Its facilities are badly in need of modernization, but a $10 billion investment plan proposed by a Chinese tycoon may be disrupted by the current turmoil and/or sanctions.

The future? Crimea's rupture from Ukraine and integration with all things Russian will take much longer, and cost much more, than the rapid political process playing out in Moscow.

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