CATALUNYA ELECTIONS

A pro-independence alliance has won a majority of seats in the Spanish region of Catalonia, plunging Spain into a constitutional crisis just two months ahead of national elections. The Junts Pel Si (Together For Yes) alliance won 62 seats in the 135-member regional parliament, and another pro-independence party, Candidatura d'Unitat Popular (CUP), won 10 seats. But the pro-independence parties between them failed to win an overall majority of the votes cast, ending up with just under 48%. Junts Pel Si pledged before the vote that if it won a majority in the assembly it would begin an 18-month process toward a unilateral declaration of independence for Catalonia, Spain's richest region.

The failure of the pro-independence parties to win an absolute majority of votes cast may restrain them from pressing forward immediately with unilateral moves toward independence, a process fraught with political and economic risks. The European Union has said an independent Catalonia would have to apply for membership. An independent Catalonia could not aspire to continue being a member of the EU if it is not recognised as a State by all the EU member States. For Catalonia to be recognised as a State, all the EU countries would need to ratify such status. The key point here is how an independent Catalonia would arrange its relations with the EU, the Eurozone and Spain. Obviously, the maintenance of these relations would be, in part, beyond Catalonia’s control and there would be a high risk of a Spanish veto on its continuity as a member :

Catalonia, which includes Barcelona, has long complained that its revenues subsidize other parts of Spain.

The vote in Catalonia will complicate parties' calculations ahead of the general election, due early in December. Polls suggest that no party will command a majority in the vote and analysts expect tough bargaining on forming a new coalition. To be viable, such a coalition m Without Catalunia Spain would lose 16 % its population but also  25 % of its exports and 19 % of its son GDP.