THE CASE OF IRAN’S REFUSAL TO CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

The reasons behind Iran’s refusal to condemn Russian aggression can be traced to Iran’s ties with Russia during the past few decades, its increasingly strained relationship with the West, and developments across the Middle East.

Generally speaking, Iran never condemns Russia’s foreign aggressions, but at the same time, never recognises the territories Moscow brings under control either ( 2008 Georgian war, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and eastern Ukraine.)

Iran is counting on Russia’s support in the international arena, given the increasing hostilities between Tehran and the West on a range of issues, including its nuclear programme and regional influence. Iran’s ties with Russia have been strengthened especially in the past decade, and Tehran does not wish to endanger those prospects.

Iran wants to boost bilateral trade to at least $10bn from its current level of about $3.5bn in the foreseeable future, looks to Russian help for completing a nuclear power plant project in Hormozgan, and is in the process of renewing a 20-year comprehensive cooperation agreement that expired last year.

That is not to mention the two countries’ potential for regional cooperation, particularly in Syria, Afghanistan, and Yemen.

Iran’s approach towards the Ukraine crisis also has local dimensions. Iran’s leaders support Russia’s anti-Western discourse and perceive it as an indication of the West’s decline. In the same vein, there’s a message to the more pro-Western parts of the Iranian society and political sphere, as well as the general public, that the West cannot be trusted and they leave their partners when their help is needed the most. On the other hand, Iran does not outright support Russia’s military campaigns because it could someday be used against itself in some of its border provinces where secessionist sentiments have existed.

The significant escalation in the Ukraine crisis comes as consequential talks in Vienna to restore Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal. The war in Ukraine will ultimately lead to Russia getting closer to Iran and expand its support of Iran, and this could include closer economic cooperation despite US sanctions, since Russia is now heavily sanctioned by the West.

The Ukraine crisis could also lead to closer security and military cooperation between Iran and Russia, especially in Syria.