THE ACTORS IN THE ARMENIA VS AZERBAIJAN CONFLICT

1. Russia: Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine in 2022 has weakened its ability to effectively control and interfere in the decades-long conflict between the two neighboring states. Notably, Russia occupies a contradictory position as the dominant arms supplier to both Armenia and Azerbaijan and the main provider of peacekeeping forces to the region. Indeed, although Russia has a military base in Armenia and Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia has been turning its attention toward Azerbaijan since it represents a major market for Russian arms exports. Thus far Moscow has largely failed or been deliberately unwilling to fully resolve the ongoing hostilities between the two neighboring nations.
2. China: China and Azerbaijan count each other as strategic partners. Azerbaijan participates in China’s Belt and Road Initiatives. Beijing is eager to expand their influence across Central Asia . Azerbaijan is a key player in regional energy projects, as well as the development of new regional railways and planned infrastructure and connectivity projects.
3. Turkey: Turkey has provided its unwavering support to Azerbaijan, grounded in pan-Turkik cultural and linguistic affinities and strong economic ties.  Turkey has been Azerbaijan’s main regional ally since it gained independence. Turkik assistance has proved decisive for Azerbaijan’s military superiority over Armenia. Azerbaijan also enjoys the support of Ankara’s closest partner such as Pakistan and Qatar.
4. Iran: Iran is home to a significant Azeri-speaking community. 15 to 19 million Azeris live in Iran, compared to 10 million living in Azerbaijan. Tehran wants to avoid any potential spillover that would fuel Iranian Azeris’ claims for autonomy within Iran or rapprochement with Azerbaijan. Tehran is also concerned about Baku’s ambition to build an overland transport corridor in Armenia that would link mainland Azerbaijan to the landlocked Nakhichevan exclave, which would cut off Iran’s direct access to Yerevan. Therefore, while officially Iran holds a position of neutrality and expresses its availability to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it is in fact leaning in favor of Armenia.
5. Israel: Israel backs Azerbaijan, and has established itself as one of the key arms suppliers to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has been working on expanding military cooperation with Israel and Israel has supplied drones to Azerbaijan.
6. USA: The United States receives significant pressure from members of the Armenian diaspora to intervene. The U.S. has historically sold arms to both Azerbaijan and Armenia and has been denouncing Azerbaijan’s latest offensive.
7. Europe: The conflict poses a pressing dilemma for European capitals that consider the region to be part of Europe yet have been unwilling to get militarily involved. Many on the continent have been vocal against Azerbaijan’s military buildup and aggressive posture, while seeking to avoid a direct clash with Baku. Azerbaijan has established itself as one of the major providers of hydrocarbons to Europe, notably through the Southern Gas Corridor, a trend set to increase as the continent diversifies away from Russian gas. In the past, the European Union’s attempts to step up have been largely unsuccessful, since neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia has been willing to anger Turkey and Russia, their respective security guarantors in the conflict. But Russia’s ongoing military shortcomings in Ukraine and its deteriorating relations with Yerevan seem to have left a power vacuum that has not gone unnoticed for European policymakers.

Note

Russia has its own share of guilt for what has been taking place in the last three years, and what happened in Artsakh last week. The Russian peacekeepers, who were mandated by the 2020 agreement to safeguard the population of Artsakh and keep the Lachin Corridor open until 2025, failed miserably to carry out their responsibilities. Russia did not even try to protect the borders of the Republic of Armenia, as required by the CSTO agreement signed between Armenia, Russia and several other former Soviet Republics. .

The international community is also guilty of ignoring the suffering of Artsakh Armenians who lost their historic homeland after being starved for nine months due to the blockade of the Lachin Corridor by Azerbaijan. Other than saying a lot of useless words, no one in the world lifted a finger to rescue these people and defend their rights.

All international laws, human rights, and notions of justice are a lot of hot air. Equally useless are the UN Security Council, the International Court of Justice, European Court of Human Rights, European Union, European Council, and statements by officials of many countries, including the United States.