MOVING TOWARDS A MULTIPLE BLOCS SCENARIO

Source: BertelsmannStiftung

The EU asserts itself next to the US and China as the world’s third major bloc. Other blocs are possible, for example, under Russia’s leadership.

This scenario assumes that the world is divided into multiple dominant blocs. And while these power centers interact with each other, they are clearly demarcated from each other: The democracies in the US and Europe face off against autocratic China, where the Communist Party has a monopoly on power.

THE NEW COLD WAR

A new Cold War in Europe is basically unavoidable.

ONGOING RUSSIFICATION CAMPAIGN IN UKRAINE

Russia is using every chance to undermine Ukrainian culture and the Ukrainian language in the territories it occupies. The Kremlin intends to unite Ukraine with Russia by literally destroying the Ukrainian language, nation, culture and history. Ultimately, Russia’s aim is to promote the idea that the Ukrainian nation and its language are artificial constructions, and that being under Russian control is the only destiny for Ukraine.

TRACKING NEW INFLUENCERS IN JUNE 2022

​​Allianz: Margot Jilet Vesentini heads to Allianz as a senior manager EU affairs, via Insurance Europe.

AnimalhealthEurope: AnimalhealthEurope has elected a new president for a partial term: Rob Kelly — SVP and Head of Europe, Russia, North Africa and Middle East region for MSD Animal Health. Kelly succeeds the retiring Hans Dittrich in both role, he’ll finish out the second half of Dittrich’s two-year term as president.

THE RUSSIAN THREAT PERCEIVED BY NATO

The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.

NATO 2022 STRATEGIC CONCEPT

Purpose and Principles

1. NATO is determined to safeguard the freedom and security of Allies. Its key purpose and greatest responsibility is to ensure our collective defence, against all threats, from all directions. We are a defensive Alliance.

2. The transatlantic bond between our nations is indispensable to our security. We are bound together by common values: individual liberty, human rights, democracy and the rule of law. We remain firmly committed to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty.

REINFORCEMENT OF NATO'S EASTERN FLANK

Nato is to increase its forces on high alert by more than sevenfold to 300,000 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as part of a sweeping overhaul to better protect its eastern flank. The Western alliance will also increase deployments close to Russia, shifting the focus from deterring any invasion to a full defence of allied territory. The new military blueprint will drastically upgrade NATO’s eastern defences. The new “strategic concept” will define NATO’s goals and approaches for the next decade, and on a vastly expanded plan to defend its easternmost allies.

FAVORABLE OPINION OF THE U.S.

Source: Pew Research Center Spring 2022 Global Attitudes Survey

  1. Poland: 91%
  2. South Korea: 89%
  3. Israel: 83%
  4. Japan: 70%
  5. Sweden: 66%
  6. United Kingdom: 64%
  7. Canada: 63%
  8. Germany: 63%
  9. Italy: 61%
  10. Spain: 60%
  11. Netherlands: 60%
  12. France: 57%
  13. Belgium: 56%
  14. Australia: 54%
  15. Singapore: 51%
  16. Greece: 48%
  17. Malaysia: 44%

NATO MADRID SUMMIT 29-30 JUNE 2022

AGENDA

1. A New Security Reality- a United Alliance

At the Summit, NATO Leaders will significantly strengthen the Alliance's posture for the long term, with more presence, capabilities and readiness. Ensuring NATO remains fit for the future will require adequate resources and continued investment in defence.

POSSIBLE FLASHPOINTS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO

  1. Gotland: Russia could try to seize the strategically Swedish island as a way to control the Baltic Sea, cutting off the Baltic States
  2. The Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the most likely front line of any future crisis. An accident or overstep could be miscontrued

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