THE NEW COLD WAR

A new Cold War in Europe is basically unavoidable.

1. This new version of the Cold War in greater Europe is bound to be far less stable than the previous edition. Restoring mutual trust with Russia is going to prove extremely difficult, if it is even possible.
2. This new Cold War will also take place in a context of a level of globalization and interdependence that did not exist prior to 1989
3. There also is the added factor of China, now equipped with the status of superpower – something Russia yearns for, but will never attain again.
4. It remains to be seen whether it will be a single cold war where, in simplified terms the world may be divided into two blocks. We may also have to deal with multiple cold wars, each conflict with its own characteristics and based on different pairs of tensions.
5. Europe not just the United States will have to deal with a potentially outcast, unstable and technologically isolated Russia.
6. At a minimum, the danger of the Cold War turning hot increases e.g. Kaliningrad
7. This new Cold War is going to lead to increased military spending in an EU.
8. NATO holds all the cards for outdoing the EU in military terms. In a new strategy of containment and deterrence, the rotating deployments on its eastern front may well become significant and permanent.
9. Nuclear arms are back. We could face the prospect of a new nuclear arms race and, if there is an escalation, possibly a new crisis akin to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.
10. There  is going to be an ideological battle – but not, as before, between communism and capitalism but between the liberal democratic system as opposed to autocracy.