THE POSSIBILITY OF WORLD WAR III

So far, it is still Russia’s war against Ukraine. But World War III has never been closer. Senior Western government officials, diplomats and military analysts acknowledge that there is now a grave danger that the United States and other NATO allies could be drawn into the war at virtually any moment, as the result of any number of scenarios.

1. A mistake. The Russians lob a missile into Poland. That is not impossible and then it very quickly escalates. And we have to respond.
2. The outcry against the crimes against humanity is so strong that we feel compelled to take what we think is a limited and judicious action.
3. The enforcement of a no-fly zone means killing Russians
4. The shelling and a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant provided yet another frightening example of the type of emergency scenario that could ensnare a broader international coalition in Putin’s war: to urgently prevent a global catastrophe.
5. Other more mundane scenarios abound. Already, on Wednesday Russian planes violated Swedish air space multiple times. An Estonian cargo ship sunk off the coast of Odesa, apparently after hitting a mine. Any such incident could easily escalate.

The war in Ukraine is  far more dangerous than anything Europe has seen since the end of World War II, including the Balkan wars of the 1990s. As horrible as that was, this is worse, with the potential of getting a real European war, or a world war very quickly. This is just getting deeper and deeper, every day.

As Putin realizes that fury among the Ukrainian population means he will lose politically, no matter the military outcome, there is a heightened risk he will simply seek to destroy Ukraine, flattening its cities and towns. 

And the devastating barrage of severe sanctions that are punishing the Russian economy will give Putin little incentive to back away from his goal of conquering Ukraine and toppling its government. Putin chose war fully knowing there would be severe economic consequences.

Ukrainians would pay a terrible price as a result of the West insisting it is not in the fight, and delaying its direct involvement. The West will try to pretend for a while longer, and many more Ukrainians will have to die as they are Putin’s primary target.

The West is not understanding that it is  a participant in this war already — not because it put itself there, not because it is looking for this war, not because of any decision that NATO made or any individual bilateral partners of Ukraine made, but because Vladimir Putin is fighting a war against the West . And when the West shows up to the war, it will end sooner and faster with less people dead, and that’s really the decision the West has to make now.

There is a chance Putin could decide to broaden the conflict even as Western countries continue to try to walk a legal tightrope. Is a fighter jet too much? Is that NATO participating in a war? Is the drones too much? Is that NATO arming Ukraine in the war?

Increasing talk about the need to kill or depose Putin could also transform the fight in Ukraine into a world war as the Russian leader concludes that he is not only engaged in regime preservation but literally in self-preservation. Even scarier than other scenarios that would draw NATO into the conflict is the talk about trying him before the International Criminal Court.

Overall, Western officials are not recognizing the acute danger of a world war. Everybody is doing what they have done all along, except something fundamental has changed