France and Germany have different but potentially complementary agendas with regard to Russia. While Paris is more interested in security-related questions, Berlin has focused more strongly on the realms of business and energy. However, German concerns about issues of European security are growing, and there is overlap in the problems facing economic actors from both countries in the Russian context.

Among international partners, Poland seems to reign in popularity sweepstakes, with the largest number of Ukrainians favouring partnership with it and Polish President Andrzej Duda topping the list of foreign leaders most trusted by Ukrainians.

Ukrainians have a demand for regional alliances with Ukraine’s participation, so Ukrainian diplomacy should continue this trend.

Ukrainians have lauded the development of

Ranking of total available active military power by country

The key military element of Minsk II is the disarmament of the separatists and the withdrawal of Russian “volunteer” forces, together with a vaguely worded suggestion for the temporary removal the Ukrainian armed forces (exclusive of border guards). The key political element consists of three essential and mutually dependent parts: demilitarization; a restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty, including control of the border with Russia; and full autonomy for the Donbas in the context of the decentralization of power in Ukraine as a whole.

As of September 2021 (in Billion U.S.$)

Resolution 2202 adopted unanimously by the UN Security Council endorses the February 12, 2015, Minsk Two agreement, titled Package of Measures for the Implementation of the September 2014 Minsk Agreements (Minsk One). The UN Security Council incorporates the Minsk Two document as an annex, thus conferring it further weight. This signifies an indirect endorsement of Minsk Two by the United States with the UN Security Council.

1. Treaty of neutrality or a moratorium of 10 or 20 years on Ukrainian membership in NATO. The West loses nothing by this, since it is clear that Ukraine cannot in fact join NATO with its conflicts with Russia unresolved. In any case the U.S. and NATO have made it absolutely clear that they cannot and will not defend Ukraine by force.
2. A return to the (Adapted) Conventional Forces in Europe Agreement limiting NATO forces in eastern Europe and Russian forces in contiguous territories.

Russia could contemplate a wide range of scenarios from targeted missile strikes to a limited incursion from the east or south of the country, and even a full-scale invasion backed by cyber warfare.

After deploying about 100,000 Russian soldiers close to Ukraine’s northern, eastern and southern borders, President Putin has warned he has “all kinds” of options if his demands over Ukraine and Nato’s activities in the former Soviet bloc are unmet.

Author: Dr. Anatol Lieven, Senior research fellow of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

One of the most menacing crisis is the armed standoff between the Ukrainian military and Russian-supported separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. However, Russia has not annexed Donetsk and Luhansk (the two Ukrainian provinces that make up the Donbas) or recognized their independence.