UPDATE ON THE NINE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES’ ACCESSION APPLICATIONS   

Five of the candidate countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are in the Western Balkans. Georgia and Moldova are in a very different situation as former Soviet republics with pro-Russian breakaway regions, and Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against its much larger neighbour. 

While Georgia recently approved a contentious law targeting alleged foreign influence has set back its membership aspirations, Ukraine and Moldova entered official accession negotiations with the EU on 25 June.

The final candidate is Turkey, which is in a category of its own. The country’s accession process has been stalled since 2018 with no foreseeable prospect of advancing.

Albania 

Albania submitted its application for EU membership in 2009 and achieved candidate status in 2014. The Commission’s latest progress report highlighted that there is still a lot to improve when it comes to more stable political institutions, ensuring the rule of law, and respecting human and minority rights in the country. During Albanian local elections last year, testy relations with neighbouring Greece threatened to throw a spanner in the works when ethnic Greek Fredi Beleri – mayor-elect of Himare, an ethnically Greek city in Albania – was arrested on vote buying and corruption charges. Squabbles between the two countries are likely to remain an obstacle to Albania’s EU accession.

Albania has only 10 entities reported as lobbying the EU   

Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted candidate status in December 2022. The country has passed several laws on conflicts of interest, anti-money laundering and countering terrorist financing. Nevertheless, the government has struggled to control organised crime, corruption, and the separatist endeavours of the ethnically Serbian Republika Srpska region, which accounts for about a third of the country’s overall population. 

Bosnia and Herzegovina has only 5 entities reported as lobbying the EU.

Georgia 

Georgia, the only candidate not sharing a border with an existing EU member, has been partially occupied by Russian troops since a five-day war in 2008 involving the separatist provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia. That has been an obstacle to moving forward on EU membership, but there is strong public support for it, according to a 2023 survey by the Caucasus Research Resource Centers. After refusing to engage in membership talks in 2022— due to political polarisation, instability and the presence of powerful oligarchs in the country—the EU relented in December 2023, granting Georgia candidate status on the condition that it improved on rule of law. That process stopped just a few months later with Georgia's passage of a hotly contested foreign agents bill, which sparked protests at home and criticism abroad. Signed into law in June, the law targets NGOs and some media over external funding. Democracy advocates have said the law clamps down on civil society and free media. As a result, the EU announced in July that accession talks are “ practically frozen”

Georgia has only 3 entities reported as lobbying the EU.

Montenegro 

A Nato member and the smallest of the Balkan countries, Montenegro applied for EU membership in 2008 and officially started the accession process in June 2012. After complaints by the Commission about “political volatility [and] government instability and tensions” – coupled with a lack of political will to push forward with the application – the tides are turning following the election of a new government in October 2023. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić of the “Europe Now” movement has pledged to accelerate reforms and unblock the accession process. The 36-year-old former Goldman Sachs banker has declared joining the EU a foreign policy priority, aiming to gain membership as early as 2028.  

Montenegro has only 3 entities reported as lobbying the EU.

Moldova

A battleground of influence between the EU and Russia, Moldova’s government, with its pro-European president, Maia Sandu, took a clear turn towards the EU when it applied for membership in March 2022. Last year, the EU deployed a civilian mission to the former Soviet republic after warnings of a potential coup by pro-Russian politicians. Moscow continues to support the separatist enclave of Transnistria, with around 1,500 Russian troops stationed in the region. Although there are doubts over whether its accession can proceed while Russian troops are on Moldovan soil, the EU started the official accession talks with Moldova on 25 June.

Moldova has only 5 entities reported as lobbying the EU.

North Macedonia 

North Macedonia achieved candidate status in 2005 but accession negotiations didn’t begin until March 2020, the longest gap in the EU’s history. Greece insisted on the country changing its name from Macedonia as a precondition of advancing the process, which was done in 2019. Bulgaria then created a new obstacle, demanding that North Macedonia change its constitution and agree to its view that the Macedonian language is a dialect of Bulgarian and that certain ethnic Macedonians are Bulgarian. So far, there has been no majority in the parliament in Skopje to bring about such a change.   

North Macedonia has only 1 entity reported as lobbying the EU.

Serbia 

Serbia’s path to EU accession will remain blocked until it can normalise relations with Kosovo, which broke away from the state in 2008, the Commission has said. Nevertheless, Serbia applied for EU membership in 2009 and has been a candidate since 2012. Irregularities during the country’s most recent elections in December created another roadblock when an Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe mission discovered manipulation and voter fraud. President Aleksandar Vučić’s closeness to Russia and his increasing anti-EU rhetoric present another problem. A poll by Demostat from June 2023 revealed that only 33 per cent of the Serbian population wants to join the EU – the lowest approval rating in the region.   

Serbia has 23 entities reported as lobbying the EU.

Turkey  

Turkey’s accession process, which began in 1999, has been at a standstill since 2018. While the Commission calls the country a “leading partner,” it clarified in its latest progress report that the conditions for progress in the accession process are not being met – namely, respect for the rule of law, democratic values and human rights, as well a resolution to the ongoing sovereignty dispute between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tried to tie his approval of Sweden’s NATO membership to Turkey’s EU accession process, before backing down.   

Turkey has 23 entities reported as lobbying the EU.

Ukraine

Ukraine applied for EU membership on 28 February 2022, four days after it was invaded by Russia – ultimately reigniting the bloc’s enlargement agenda. The EU granted Ukraine candidate status in June that year and, in December 2023, EU leaders agreed to open accession negotiations. Although this is the first time that a nation at war has asked to join the EU, the accession negotiations, which will likely last years, were officially set in motion on 25 June.

Ukraine has 38 entities reported as lobbying the EU.