UKRAINE’S GENERAL TERMS OF PEACE NEGOTIATIONS

Ukraine is a country long divided by ethnic, linguistic, religious, cultural, economic, and political differences, particularly its western and eastern regions, but not only. When the current crisis began in 2013, Ukraine had one state, but it was not a single people or a united nation.

General Terms of Peace Negotiations

1. Ukraine must become a federal or sufficiently decentralized state in order to permit its diverse regions to elect their own officials, live in accord with their local cultures, and have a say in taxation and budgetary issues, as is the case in many federal states from Canada to Germany. Such constitutional provisions will need to be ratified by a referendum or a constitutional assembly, accompanied or followed by parliamentary and presidential elections.

2. Ukraine must not be aligned with any military alliance, including NATO. (Nor must any of the other former Soviet republics now being courted by NATO.)

3. Ukraine must be governed in ways that enable it to maintain or develop economic relations both with Russia and the West. Otherwise, it will never be politically independent or economically prosperous.

4. If these principles are adopted, they should be guaranteed, along with Ukraine’s present territorial integrity, by Russia and the West, perhaps in a UN Security Council resolution.

From Germany’s viewpoint Ukrainian "decentralisation", a deal on gas prices, and Ukraine's "trade relations" with Russia are elements that could bring about an accord. Most importantly, Chancellor Merkel suggests that while Ukraine cannot be simultaneously be a member of the Russia-led Customs Union and the EU, it could perhaps be a member of the EU and the Eurasia Economic Union, which is due to replace the Customs Union on January 1, 2016.

Moreover, the EU delegation at the Minsk Summit agreed to start three-way talks in September on thrashing out a solution to the trade relations impasse. Trilateral talks is a huge concession to Russia, as it means in effect that the EU has abandoned its us-or-Russia stance over trade. It also means that Brussels has split with Washington and the effort to isolate Russia has collapsed.

Germany finds itself on the front line in the conflict, mainly as it has ten times more companies invested and working in Russia than any other European country. It also has heavy dependence on Russian energy exports and relative physical proximity to both Russia and Ukraine. Merkel's obvious motive for this volte-face is the contraction in Germany's economy and obvious economic pain being inflicted on many EU countries by the sanctions war. The time has come to put an end to this row and get everyone back to work, as the Eurozone crisis is still rumbling on in the background and Europe has many big issues of its own to deal with if a third wave to the crisis is to be avoided.