MR. JUNCKER HAS GOT TO MAKE HIS CASE

On 15 July, MEPs will hold a plenary debate with Mr Juncker in Strasbourg, before voting on his nomination to become Commission President. He will need at least 376 of 751 votes to win an absolute manjority.

Mr. Juncker's election is by far not cut and dry. The grand coalition made up of the European People's Party (EPP) and Socialists (S&D) only has 55% of the new European Parliament (EPP 221 seats, S&D 191 seats for a total of 412 votes. So the minimum requirement for an absolute majority is only 36 votes (412-376). That is a very slim lead. Particularly in light of the fact that the MEPs are voting by secret ballot. There are also dissenters within the S&D and EPP ranks. There are 20 MEPs from the British Labour Delegation in the S&D who could vote against Juncker. In the EPP, the Hungarian Fidesz-Delegation in the EPP, consisting of 12 MEPs, will unanimously vote against Juncker. So, the necessary majority in the Parliament is not guaranteed by the two largest political groups alone. For this reason, Mr. Juncker will need the support of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the European Greens. Of course, each of these Groups (S&D, ALDE, European Greens )will want to receive a political prize for their support. For example, in  return for their vote for Mr. Juncker, they may want another political top job guaranteed for one of their members (Already the next Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs will be S&D). Or they may wish to see some of their political priorities taken on board in the new Commission’s working programme.

Even if the ALDE Group and the Greens give the EPP top candidate the votes he needs to survive, Juncker must also compare himself to his predecessors.  Commission President José Manuel Barosso was chosen in 2004 with 61% of the votes. In 2009, it was 53% of the parliamentary vote. Jacques Santer won 52% in 1994. A result, under 53% would be put a damper on Mr. Juncker.