GERMAN ELECTION: FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The CDU/CSU this time around will be led by Friedrich Merz. Barring a major and unexpected reversal in the polls, Merz of the CDU/CSU is highly likely to be Germany’s new chancellor.

National opinion polls currently have the CDU/CSU way out ahead of the others, with 32% of support from those surveyed. The AfD are currently polling in second place with 18%, the SPD in third with 16%, and the Greens with 14%.

Merz is not a newcomer to German politics, but this is his second iteration as a politician.

Between 1989 and 1994, Merz was a member of the European Parliament (MEP) for Germany. He subsequently became a member of the Bundestag, or German parliament, representing the CDU there until 2009. He then left politics to work as a corporate lawyer, where he sat on many supervisory boards, including at investment giant BlackRock.

Merz represents the constituency of Hochsauerlandkreis in the Bundestag, the region in which he was born, and currently lives in his hometown of Brilon. He is also widely reputed to be a millionaire and has a private pilot’s license.

Merz made two failed attempts to become CDU head in 2018 and 2020. In 2021 he returned as a member of the Bundestag, for the first time in 12 years, and subsequently went on to secure the nomination as head of the CDU, officially taking over in September 2022.

He is known for having shifted the CDU to the right, with a tougher stance on migration, and a strong economic mind. During his bid to become party leader, he campaigned on not being a Merkel-style heir, unlike his challengers, thus marking the end of the centrist policies of the CDU during her era as chancellor.

Merz is a very strong proponent of backing Ukraine as it fights Russia’s full-scale invasion. He has been a vocal supporter of giving Ukraine German-made Taurus missiles, weapons that could be used to attack Russian targets far beyond Ukraine’s front lines. Merz urges  European nations to form a “common vision” for peace in Ukraine, especially given the impending arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump in the White House.

What are the main issues?

The economy is going to play a central role in the election. In recent days the German Central Bank has revised down predicted growth forecasts by 0.2%, stating that “the German economy is set to stagnate in the winter half-year 2024-25 and only begins to make a slow recovery over the course of 2025.”