AND THE WINNER IS.....

The Council will submit a formal proposal for Commission President during its next official summit on 26 and 27 June 2014.

BUT Prime Minister David Cameron will force a vote on Mr. Juncker's appointment at the Brussels Summit. Under the Lisbon rules, the vote will be by qualified majority voting. This means that a proposal under consideration by the Council must meet thre requirements:

• A majority of countries within the European Union (15 out of 28 countries);
• A supermajority (74%) of countries according to a formula of voting weights; and
• A supermajority of countries representing at least 62% of the EU-wide population.

The trickiest hurdle is meeting the 74% jurdle. With a total of 352 weighted votes that means Mr. Juncker must win at least 260 weighted votes. Conversely, it means that a minority of 93 weighted votes can block Mr. Juncker.

If Prime Minister David Cameron fails to stop Mr. Juncker:

1. It will be interpreted as a sign of embarrassing weakness at home and abroad.
2. Political foes will likely say it shows his chances of overhauling the EU are nil
3. He will have made an enemy of the new Commission Chief who will hardly be sympathetic to Britain's demands for a reduction of the Commission's powers and return control over some policy areas to national authorities
4. He will have spent a lot of political capital and will look domestically as a person not in control.
5. UK's influence will be undermined by a possible British exit from the EU
6. It will be a huge setback for the Prime Minister.

The EU is a system built on give-and-take as its 28 members and competing institutions struggle to find compromises. Frequently in those negotiations, size matters, with deals often pre-cooked between the big three of Berlin, Paris and London. But this time London is isolating itself and that's a LOSE-LOSE game.