WHY DONALD TRUMP WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.A.
Submitted by christian on Tue, 07/26/2016 - 14:13
- The primary dividing line of this election is globalization, specifically neoliberal globalization, and more specifically the plight of the working class in the wake of free trade. Trump very explicitly rejects free-trade globalization and its many transnational practices, protocols and treaties, Trump’s claim is that while neoliberal globalization has generated unprecedented quantities of money wealth, the lion’s share of that wealth has gone to a few rich thereby immensely widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots.
- Trump conveys a sense of inevitability, of being unstoppable. He has said the worst one could say in an electoral campaign and triumphed.
- When it comes to providing a contrast between hardship, loss, and suffering for the majority, and long-cherished images of American success, Trump looks the part and he can continue to boast of his wealth and success in the face of sometimes rather desperate , very underprivileged voters.
- Trump has won by bringing in voters who were neither identifying as Republicans (many if not most of them being Independents), nor prepared to vote Republican, nor were some even considering voting (ever) until Trump. In fact Trump has already been campaigning in general elections.
- One can view Trump unfavorably, and yet still vote for him. It seems that some will vote for him precisely because they see him in unfavourable terms, or because they know others view him negatively. Trump is a ‘bomb thrower’, he is a ‘disruptor’, he and his supporters will ‘blow things up’- a general reveling in chaos. Unfavourability is not to be confused with unvotability.
- If Trump is successfully cast as anti-Latino, that might attract some black voters given the historical cleavages and rivalries between blacks and Latinos. If Trump is successfully cast as anti-immigrant, then that will attract some Latino voters on the US border with Mexico. Though currently small in number, Trump has already attracted some Latino and black voters.
- When it comes to the devastating social and economic impacts of free trade, there is now more open acknowledgement that this has bred the ‘angry white voter’ who is more likely to support Trump. There is already evidence of Trump winning working class voters away from the Democrats, who feel discarded by the neoliberal Democrats, and even some of Bernie Sanders’ supporters have for months indicated a preference for Trump over Clinton. One poll showed 20% of Democrats moving to vote for Trump.
- Trump is one to say that he prefers unpredictability. He clearly relishes, and perhaps cultivates his impact as an unpredictable force. Another factor is found within the mass of voters—regardless of demographics, statistics, historical ends, and so forth. There are many voters who will never publicly admit to wanting to vote for Donald Trump, but who will do so anyway. There are also those voters who have no idea why they will vote for Donald Trump, and will proceed to do so regardless. And then you have those that cannot resist the deeply tempting question: “What if? Let’s see what happens, if Trump becomes president”. Even many of those who are committed to destroying Trump, will find it irresistible to at least consider voting for him, even if in their most private, fleeting of thoughts.
- Trump's appeal is rooted in a willingness to blow up the old order. Everything he stands for is not just anti-establishment but also anti-the-way-we-have-long-been-thinking-about-and-conducting-politics.
- Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.
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