WHERE IS THE PILOT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION COCKPIT ?

Gone David Cameron (UK), Gone Nicolas Sarkozy (France), Gone François Hollande (France), Gone Matteo Renzi (Italy)

Anti-elite sentiment is rising in Europe and the global populist revolution will continue. A populist tsunami is about to wash through Europe. It will drastically change the Continent’s political landscape in a way not seen since before World War II. This wave will flush away traditional mainstream parties and usher in anti-establishment populists who want to leave the European Union. As new political movements emerge, traditional parties will find it increasingly difficult to form coalitions and hold them together. The virus of political fragility could spread next year from France, to Spain to the Netherlands.

The old ways of doing EU business do not inspire the loyalty of enough EU citizens. EU institutions lack legitimacy. The reasons are well known: poor communication, a democratic deficit, finger pointing between Member States and the Commission, a flawed institutional architecture. In the struggle over how Europe will develop, the EU institutions lack the authority or support to put up much of a fight or even fully enter the ring. But this moment of national navel-gazing among the Member States may actually present an important opportunity for EU institutions to work on closing the legitimacy gap. This means the EU must complete key initiatives, most urgently the banking union; improve accountability; and ensure that the public understands what the EU institutions are doing. It also means staying out of political conflicts, which neither the European Commission nor the European Parliament are in any position to win.

The EU needs to improve its performance on at least three topics: trade, treaty change and democracy.

1. If trade becomes too difficult for the EU to complete trade agreements because a few states hold things up then the EU’s utility as a trade negotiator will fade away.
2. Treaty change must also be easier. Every living institution must be able to amend its rules. If EU treaty change is off the agenda as a matter of principle then the EU will eventually freeze up and die. If such change becomes impossible, European states will look to other, less open, less democratic and less transparent institutions to advance their collective interests.
3. Democracy must also be enhanced. One of the most frequent  if ill-informed criticisms of the EU is that the EU is undemocratic and run by unelected bureaucrats. The best way to respond would be to make the treaty changes that enable the EU to be more democratic and accountable. If they are to have greater allegiance to the EU, citizens must feel they can, by the way they vote, influence the direction of the EU policy. And they should be able to do that, collectively as Europeans, rather than just as citizens of Member States. First, the entire electorate of the EU should elect the President of the European Commission directly, in a two-round election. This should be done without changing the legal powers or composition of the Commission. The direct election of its President would help to increase the moral authority of the Commission. Second, the President of the Eurogroup should be similarly elected. This would introduce a valuable democratic element into debates about economic policy, without threatening the independence of the European Central Bank. Third, give national parliaments, if a minimum number agree, a power to require the Commission to put forward legislative proposals. Any proposal would then have to go through normal procedures after that, but such a move would give a positive dimension to national parliaments’ discussions on the EU.

Uncertainty will continue. There has been disruption to the system. Disorder and division are the consequences. For the EU, it is time to turn the current crisis into an opportunity to grasp the chance to renew the Union and make changes for the better. Only if the EU institutions deliver genuine action, in a credible and transparent manner, can they ensure that the future of Europe is Europe.