WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF MPs REJECT THERESA MAY’s DEAL?

Members of Parliament (MPs) will vote on the UK's Brexit deal in the week beginning 14 January 2019. Nobody knows if MPs will approve it or not.ervative Party

MPs will be voting either to give their support to or reject two things which make up Mrs May's deal:

1. EU withdrawal agreement - This sets out what will happen when the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019
2. Accompanying political declaration - This explains what the UK's relationship will be like with the EU once a period of transition comes to an end (this is due to happen at the end of 2020)

Labour, the Lib Dems, the Scottish National Paty (SNP), the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and many Conservative MPs are set to vote against it.

If Parliament rejects the deal, the government would have up to 21 days to make a statement to MPs about how it intends to proceed. Then, there would be a seven-day period when it lays its proposals before Parliament. But in an important vote in the House of Commons recently, MPs voted for changes to the parliamentary process if Theresa May loses the vote. They backed calls to give them a direct say in what happens if Mrs May's deal is rejected . Instead of MPs just "taking note" of what the government tells them, they would also be able to exert more influence by voting on what they want the government to do next.

There are a number of possible scenarios if MPs vote to reject Mrs May's Brexit deal. The main ones that people are talking about are:

No deal

The UK could head towards a ‘no deal’ Brexit. This would mean no transition period. UK relationship with the EU would suddenly and abruptly end. Without plans in place, border checks could be re-imposed (which would be an especially big deal on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland), and transport and trade between the UK and the EU could be severely affected.

General election

Another outcome - which Labour says should happen if the deal is rejected - is another general election, in which UK adults vote for a new government. This is what Mr Corbyn is pushing for. It looks unlikely, though, as it wouldn't bring any government much closer to solving the Brexit issues in the time left.

Another referendum

For this to be an outcome, the government would need to be convinced it needs to happen and a majority would need to vote in support of this in the House of Commons, where MPs vote on issues. At the moment, it doesn't appear that the majority of MPs would vote for another referendum to happen. Mrs May is also completely set against another referendum happening at the moment, so either she would need to change her mind - or be replaced. If it was decided the UK should have another referendum, legislation would need to be passed and there would be a period of time between that happening and the referendum taking place. This would mean there would have to be a delay to Brexit - and that would require all 27 EU member states and the UK to agree to that happening.

So what now?

The problem is that in the UK Parliament, for issues to be decided on, there needs to be a majority of approval - and there doesn't appear to be a majority of approval for any outcome at the moment, including the deal that is currently on the table.

Currently, some politicians from the Conservative, Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru and Green parties are involved with coming up with a plan (amendments to what is being proposed) that would try to rule out a no-deal Brexit, which - they hope - would get a majority vote. It would not be legally binding though, but it would an indication of what the majority of Parliament wants to happen.