TAKE ON THE FORTHCOMING DUTCH ELECTIONS

The Netherlands holds a parliamentary election on March 15. There are 28 parties competing in a volatile political environment.

According to a combination of the five largest opinion polls on February 22, the PVV (Wilders’ Party for Freedom )commands just 17 percent of the vote. The other parties’ predicted vote shares are even smaller. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) comes a close second, with 16 percent. The centrist Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and leftish liberal Democrats 66 (D66) are competing for third and fourth place, each with 11 percent. The Socialist Labor Party (PvdA), once a giant, is joint sixth, with 8 percent

For the past two months Geert Wilders’s PVV has done well in the polls, and it would surprise no one if they are in fact the largest party in parliament after the elections — let’s say 30 to 35 of the 150 seats. Until about a week ago, the list parties that would be willing to enter into a coalition with Wilders consisted of two: right-wing VVD and ultra-orthodox Calvinist SGP. Such a coalition will not have a majority in parliament. The VVD hovers around 25 seats, and the SGP will get 4. So let’s give them 60 between the three of them. That’s 16 less than necessary.

In a system that relies on coalition governments, most other parties have categorically excluded forming an alliance with the PVV. So whatever the outcome of the vote on March 15, the next government is likely to be a multiparty coalition run by Rutte. Forming a government with several parties may be complicated. Governing will be even harder. Wilders will be encouraged to continue to rail from the opposition benches, influencing government policies by remote control—just as before.