A TAKE ON AMERICA’S DISENGAGEMENT FROM WORLD AFFAIRS

1. Today there is much uncertainty, not just over America’s policies and its place in the world, but also over the responses of its allies and adversaries to important changes in the style and substance of US engagement internationally.
2. The image of America as an open and tolerant society to be imitated, and as an example of values and characteristics to which other states might aspire, has weakened.
3. The diminishment in both America’s capability and its will to lead mean that the US will play a less active role in the world in the coming years.
4. From the perspective of international actors, questions are being raised about the US’s willingness and ability to lead internationally with significant consequences not just for the US itself, but also for Western-led institutions. Non-Americans around the world no longer hold quite such positive views of the US. Fewer individuals or governments are giving the US the benefit of the doubt.
5. In the past Europeans, in particular, have typically had confidence in the US acting for the ‘right’ reasons, even if the country sometimes does what they perceive as the ‘wrong’ thing. Europe has historically cherished US moral leadership. But this sentiment increasingly appears to be fading. In this environment, many long-standing allies are becoming warier of close relations with the US. Efforts to cultivate or maintain bilateral relations is being complicated by the political cost of being seen to cooperate with an America that is now viewed more critically by the relevant countries’ own populations.
6. Friendly foreign powers will continue to seek greater US influence and reassurance. Foreign competitors may attempt to create instability and expose American vulnerabilities. The disengagement of the US from world affairs could be detrimental to the liberal world order and could have a knock-on effect on American security through increased international instability and uncertainty.
7. The US shouldn’t be the guarantor of security in all corners of the globe. But  it should use its position in the world to help strengthen the foundation upon which the liberal order is built.  
8. Given the new uncertainty about America’s security guarantee, the most urgent priority for European states is to become more independent of the US in security terms. But it would be extremely hard to increase defence spending quickly enough.
9. Europeans have always had an ambivalent attitude to US power. While they have benefited from the US security guarantee, some Europeans have also resented the ‘hyperpower’ and have dreamed that the EU could act as a kind of counterweight to it. Such hopes were part of the thinking behind the creation of the euro and the development of the European Security and Defence Policy.
10. Some Europeans may welcome the accelerated emergence of multipolarity. But a multipolar world is likely to be a more unpredictable and unstable one in which the EU, given its unresolved internal problems and limited military capabilities, will probably struggle. 

The United States has to be wary of sudden or sharp departures in what it does in the world. Consistency and reliability are essential attributes for a great power. Friends and allies who depend on the United States for their security need to know that this dependence is well placed. If America comes to be doubted, it will inevitably give rise to a very different and much less orderly world. One would see two reactions: either a world of increased “self-help,” in which countries take matters into their own hands in ways that could work against U.S. objectives, or a world in which countries fall under the sway of more powerful local states, in the process undermining the balance of power.