PUTIN’S THEORY OF VICTORY

Putin's theory of victory is that he can outlast everybody. Throughout the war in Ukraine, however, Russia has maintained a singular objective. The objective Putin seeks is the subjugation of the Ukrainian people, and the extinguishment of their sovereignty.

1. The first element of the Russian theory of victory is to destroy the Ukrainian Army faster than it can be rebuilt.
2. Russia aims to hold Ukraine's south, which includes its only seaports. This is a productive agricultural region and is also the site of heavy industry including steel making and ship building.
3. While the Ukrainian resistance movement corrodes Russian morale in the south, and Ukrainian counter attacks slowly regain territory in Kherson, holding the south is another key element of Putin's theory of victory because it slowly strangles Ukraine economically, removing its ability to fund itself as a sovereign state.
4. Russia now sees benefit in drawing out the war. Having lured the Ukrainians into an attritional conflict in the east, they are now reliant on western weapons and munitions. And with Russia occupying the southern regions, the Ukrainians are becoming increasingly dependent on international economic aid.
5. Putin believes that the lack of strategic patience that the populations of western nations have shown in places like Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan will occur in Ukraine if he can hold out to the northern winter.
6. With increasing energy costs, rising inflation and a general weariness with the war (among populations who are sacrificing nothing), Putin is counting on assistance to Ukraine declining. And he is betting on greater pressure on Ukraine from the old European powers for some form of accommodation.
7. Finally, Russia is using continued energy exports to generate revenue to support its war in Ukraine. It has continued to export fossil fuels to many nations. This has allowed it to generate almost 1 billion Euros per day since the beginning of the invasion. And this vast sum continues to wash into Russian accounts.

The West is in a battle to out-think and out-adapt Russia. It is a fight that can absolutely be won, but will require strategic patience, and the ongoing commitment of military, intelligence, economic and humanitarian aid to the nation of Ukraine. To the end.