POSITION OF 35 COUNTRIES TOWARDS UKRAINE AND RUSSIA

Source: Politico.com

FRONTLINE COUNTRIES

Frontline countries are those shouldering the Ukrainian refugee burden and which face heightened risk of Russian aggression — which explains why NATO has announced it will double the number of battlegroups along its eastern flank.

For years, in particular since Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014, officials from countries that lived under Soviet occupation warned that Moscow was acting recklessly and needed to be called out and confronted. Those warnings went unheeded until late 2021, when Russia began amassing serious military forces around Ukraine. On Feb. 24, Moscow invaded.

Today, those countries that border Ukraine and Russia, or which are militarily unaligned under pressure from Moscow, find themselves at the center of debates on how to contain Russia, with new and willing audiences seeking their advice.

1. Bulgaria: Will not renew its Gazprom deal when it expires later in 2022 and fired Defense Minister Stefan Yanev in February for promoting Kremlin spin. However, Russia remains deeply enmeshed in the country's politics and economy, including via the pro-Russian President Rumen Radev and pro-Kremlin parties, and through large-scale investment and money laundering. Prime Minister Kiril Petkov has ruled out providing military assistance to Ukraine.
2. Czech Republic: Expelled 18 Russian diplomats for spying in 2021. Czech intelligence services are among the most skeptical of Moscow. President Miloš Zeman is a pro-Kremlin outlier in Czech politics. Economically, Russia is a bigger Czech trading partner than the U.S.
3. Estonia: Political leadership class is stridently critical of Moscow. Estonia fought for two decades to disentangle itself from historic Russian gas links and company ownership structures. Even ahead of 2022 sanctions, Russia was no longer one of Estonia's top 10 trading partners.
4. Finland: Neutral since the 1940s to ward off Soviet takeover, the Finns fought three wars against Moscow in the 20th century. In 2022, for the first time, more than 50 percent of Finns now support joining NATO. Finland joined the EU after the Soviet Union collapsed.
5. Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long nurtured relations with Moscow, and senior government politicians have received awards from the Kremlin. Has gone along with EU sanctions but will not support a Russian energy embargo. Hungary relies on Russian contractors to expand and maintain its nuclear plants, and both purchases and manufactures Russia's Covid Sputnik vaccine
6. Latvia: Latvia has a large Russian minority population — one-third of households speak Russian at home, and Latvia depends on Russia for around 90 percent of its gas. Russia is Latvia's third-biggest export market, and the two countries share a border. But Latvia is a NATO member and is sending weapons to Ukraine.
7. Lithuania: Officials in Vilnius are vocal and insistent in their public criticisms of Moscow, despite remaining among the EU countries most dependent on Russian oil and gas. The government is actively working to break this reliance via new LNG terminals and a pipeline connection to Poland. Lithuania's state-owned gas company Ignitis said it bought "zero gas" from Russia's Gazprom in January
8. Norway: Norway is the second-largest fossil fuel supplier to the EU, after Russia — putting it in direct competition with Moscow. The two countries also share a border, which Norway has promised to better defend. Norway has been one of the few European companies to meet NATO's 2 percent defense spending target and has sent considerable weapons to Ukraine.
9. Poland: Burned by decades of Soviet occupation, fueled by three decades of strong economic growth and with one of Europe's highest defense spends, Poland leads the EU's anti-Moscow bloc and hopes to kick Russia out of EU oil and gas supplies. A staunch supporter of fossil fuels, Warsaw's only red line is a coal embargo. Poland has already filled its storage reserves in preparation for cutting Russian gas out of its network when its Gazprom contract expires later in 2022. Now housing nearly 3 million Ukrainian refugees, Poland is also the main shipment point for weapons transfers into Ukraine.
10. Romania: Meets NATO 2 percent of GDP defense spending target and has been the subject of Russian threats because of its cooperation with the U.S. military. The status of Moldova (and the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria), a former territory of Romania in the 19th century, has been an ongoing source of tension. Romania has relatively little trade with Russia.
11. Slovakia: Slovakia is pushing for Ukraine to quickly become an EU member, but has sent mixed messages of Russia sanctions. The country is deeply dependent on Moscow, especially for oil and nuclear fuel. The overall trading relationship has roughly halved in size over the past decade, however.
12. Sweden: Operating outside of NATO, Sweden has ramped up defense spending and educated its citizens about the prospect of war and Kremlin misinformation, after Russian incursions into its airspace over the Baltic Sea. Sweden does not rely on Russian energy.

THE POWER PLAYERS

In the European Union, little of substance happens without the endorsement of either Germany or France, and the bloc usually only becomes effective when both countries work together. In NATO, the same can be said of the United States and to a lesser extent the UK and France. Together, the members of the G7 have the ability to change the global economy or in the case of Russia issue crushing sanctions. Turkey has a finger in every pie: housing oligarch super yachts, refusing to levy sanctions, yet supplying arm drones to Ukraine.

1. Canada: Only 0.11 percent of Canada's exported goods go to Russia, and fertilizers are the country's only significant Russian import. Canada led the charge to remove Russia from the SWIFT payments system.
2. France: Noncommittal on a Russian energy embargo. President Emmanuel Macron positioned himself as a peace broker in the lead-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and before that attempted to open the door to Russia rejoining the G-8. French companies employ more than 100,000 Russians. France has sent weapons to Ukraine, but has declined to make amounts or details public.
3. Germany:  Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany has framed its Russia relationship in economic terms, relying on Russia for 55 percent of its gas, which led to strong support for the Nord Stream II gas pipeline (until a February backflip). Germany is unwilling to end its strategic dependence on Russia: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out an EU oil and gas embargo, claiming it would cause an EU-wide recession. Germany did reverse a historic ban on weapons transfers to aid Ukraine.
4. Japan: War in Ukraine has prompted a reversal of 75 years of policy — Japan is delivering non-lethal military equipment to Kyiv via the U.S. military. Tokyo also has a sovereignty dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands, which Russia occupies. Not a major trading partner with Russia, but is involved in two LNG projects
5. Italy: The most reliant of Europe's large countries on energy imports, Italy gets around 40 percent of its gas from Russia. The two countries have close commercial ties. Italy has been a laggard in supporting EU sanctions against Russia, but recently turned against Moscow, seizing some oligarch-owned yachts and villas. The country's third-biggest party, the far-right Lega Nord, signed a cooperation pact with Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in 2017.
6. Turkey: Turkey has maintained close energy relations with Russia, while also attempting to reduce dependence. While a NATO member, Turkey has not joined in Western sanctions against Russia which allows, for example, the superyachts of oligarchs to berth in Turkish ports. Turkey remains Russia's top tourist destination, but the country's Bayraktar-2 armed drones have been sent to aid Ukraine.
7. United Kingdom: Despite London being a playground for Russian oligarchs, the U.K. and Moscow have had frosty relations since Russia's occupation of Crimea in 2014. Relations hit a low point when Russian agents poisoned Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Britain in 2018, leading Downing Street to expel 23 Russian diplomats. Russia supplies only 4 percent of British gas. The U.K. has been a strong and early proponent of sanctions, and has delivered significant amounts of weapons into Ukraine.
8. USA: The Biden administration for months shared intelligence and warned about President Putin's invasion plans for Ukraine, while working to coordinate approaches to sanctions that military assistance that would decimate Russia's ability to fight and win in Ukraine. The U.S. has banned Russian oil and gas.

FRINGE COUNTRIES

Fringe players are those countries who through size or distance from the conflict zone exercise relatively little influence in Russia/Ukraine debates.

or every frontline country or power player, there are another two minnows. But even small island states like Malta and Cyprus have surprising ties to Russia. Others, such as Austria, remain out of NATO by force of the 1955 treaty that guaranteed the country’s independence from the Soviet bloc, while Ireland and Switzerland are voluntarily neutral and remain outside NATO.

Serbia would love to join both the EU and NATO, but after years of cozying up to Moscow, may find itself excluded from Europe’s top tables for a while yet.

1. Austria: Neutral since 1955 and required to stay out of NATO as the price for maintaining independence from the Soviet bloc. Austria has long-standing diplomatic, energy and finance links to Moscow, including being the first democratic country to do a natural gas deal (1968) and OMV being a Nord Stream II pipeline partner. Gets 80 percent of its gas from Russia.
2. Belgium: Antwerp's diamond industry, which dominates the world market, is heavily dependent on Russia for rough diamond supplies (and oligarch wives). Belgium directly imports little Russian gas but is heavily integrated into Europe's northwest regional market with other countries such as Germany. Belgium prides itself at being into the center of EU debate, including Russian sanctions packages.
3. Croatia: Croatia and Russia are both Slavic countries, with Croatia being a major destination for Russian tourists. Relations between Zagreb and Moscow have fluctuated, and Croatia has built a new LNG terminal to reduce Russian gas dependence.
4. Cyprus: An offshore banking haven, tiny Cyprus is the largest foreign investor in Russia (though the real sources of these funds are obscure). Cyprus is likewise the largest recipient of Russian "investment."
5. Denmark: Worked for years to delay approval of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline, but still a major importer of Russian gas. After major investments, Denmark now gets roughly half of its energy from wind power, steadily limiting its Russia dependency. Denmark has sent significant amounts of anti-tank missiles to Ukraine.
6. Greece: Once seen as pro-Moscow, Athens pivoted sharply back to Brussels and Washington in 2018, after Russian interference in its rapprochement with North Macedonia. Greek diplomats have been appalled at the bombing of Mariupol which has a substantial Greek population. Russia-Greece trade is minimal.
7. Ireland: Neutral Ireland is not a NATO member but is nevertheless committed to supporting the "strongest possible and most comprehensive" sanctions against Russia, continuing to push for a full energy embargo despite resistance in some European capitals. Taoiseach Micheál Martin has ruled out sending weapons to Ukraine.
8. Luxembourg: Several former government ministers and ambassadors took board posts with Russian companies (they've since resigned), and numerous Russian oligarchs are beneficial owners of Luxembourg-registered companies. Tiny Luxembourg, however, goes with the EU sanctions flow
9. Malta: Malta has no Russian energy contracts. Earlier this month it stopped allowing Russians to participate in its controversial passport sale program, which had made the island state a chronic money-laundering and organized crime risk within the EU.
10. Netherlands: The Netherlands will not consider an oil embargo because of its heavy dependence on Russian oil, which makes up around two-thirds of its total trade with Moscow. That means current sanctions only skim the surface of Dutch trade with Russia. Netherlands is also heavily dependent on natural gas, with around 12 percent of its gas coming from Russia.
11. Portugal: Portugal pitches itself as the natural place for U.S. LNG to arrive in Europe, and is not dependent on Russian energy. Lisbon changed its citizenship law which had enabled Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich to obtain a Portuguese passport despite having no connection to the country.
12. Serbia: Europe's most pro-Kremlin government, which attempts to balance demands from Moscow and Brussels. Serbia has criticized Russia's invasion of Ukraine but won't join sanctions against Russia. The country's main gas company is Russian owned, and around 85 percent of its gas comes from Russia, including via a 2021 Gazprom contract.
13. Slovenia: Russia provides the majority of Slovenia's natural gas, though this makes up less than 10 percent of the country's overall energy consumption. Slovenia supports stronger sanctions, and Prime Minister Janez Janša traveled to Kyiv during the war to show solidarity with Ukrainians.
14. Spain: Led the push to ban Russian ships from EU waters. Spain is not dependent on Russian energy and took deep offense at Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's efforts to humiliate the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell, a Spaniard, in 2021.
15. Switzerland: The majority of Russian raw materials are traded in Switzerland, meaning that a massive chunk of Russian state revenue is linked to financial transactions conducted by the Swiss. Transparency International says $213 billion in Russian assets may be held in Swiss banks. The neutral and secretive country has begun a belated crackdown on oligarchs, after unexpectedly joining EU sanctions against Russia. Swiss media is filled with stories about Putin's alleged mistress and children living in Switzerland.