POLITICAL CRISIS IN FRANCE: IT’S JUST THE BEGINNING !

In the short run, one can see a fracture within the French Socialist Party (PS) in two camps : the archeo-socialists (demand policy) and socio-democrats (supply policy).The French Government will have difficulties in getting a majority since the French Communist Party (PCF) and the Left Front (Front de Gauche), a good part of the Greens and the ‘rogue deputies’(frondeurs) are going to fight against the government and might vote against some of the upcoming economic measures, notably the budget scheduled to be voted on in the fall.

The Government will be able nevertheless to obtain majorities law by law. Actually there are two possibilities: Either the opponents on the left continue to abstain without bringing down the government for fear of a dissolution of the Assembly and the loss of their seats or they bring down the government and this results into a dissolution of the Assembly.

There is no leader among the group of rogue parliamentarians. Nevertheless it is clear that the majority has now been reduced as a disciplined force.  Changing the Prime Minister in 2015 or 2016 is risky, because on 28 September 2014 will take place the Senatorial elections which centre right parties hope to win, and in 2015 will take place regional elections. So a change of Prime Minister is unlikely.

The President can dissolve the National Assembly as he wishes and when he wishes. But a dissolution could only be justified in case of a stalemate in the Assembly or the government is brought down. Furthermore, a dissolution of the Assembly would lead to elections in which many Socialist deputies might lose their seats to center-right parties or the ascendant far-right National Front. Leaders of rightist parties are already clamoring for new elections. That scenario would leave Hollande with scant leverage to win support for his programmes.

In the meantime Europe increasingly looks at France with concern and compassion, while awaiting France to respect its engagements that the country still does not respect.