Author: Thomas Graham, Distinguished Fellow, Council of Foreign Relations (CFR)

IN FAVOUR

1. Poland: Staunchest supporter of all-out sanctions against Russia
2. Slovakia: Support of an EU ban on all Russian commodities, including oil and natural gas
3. Lithuania: Willing to stop oil and gas imports from Russia
4. Latvia: Calls for a ban on Russian energy imports

OPEN

1. The war between Russia and Ukraine, both food-producing powerhouses, has already sent prices for cereals like wheat soaring and European governments scrambling to stabilize markets.
2. Europe can probably weather the immediate storm. Its farmers are bracing for even higher costs of basic inputs like fertilizers and animal feed, but consumers are unlikely to see empty supermarket shelves. Costs will go up particularly for key goods like sunflower oil but rich Western economies can afford to diversify.

1. The domestic system will become even more authoritarian;
2. Repression will increase and the forces of conservatism will very much gain the upper hand;

Scenario 1: Miracle on the Dnipro

The reputation of the Russia private military contractors' capability to contain violent extremism and ensure regime stability in Syria is one of the reasons why African States abstained from voting on the resolution condemning Russia invasion of Ukraine.

Within four years (2015 to 2019) Russia has concluded security bilateral agreements with 21 African countries.

Author: Max Boot

Putin's "barbaric" invasion of Ukraine is the culmination of more than two decades of "Sovietization" under Putin's regime.

Over the past two decades, Putin and his allies have structured nearly every core element of the Russian state with an eye toward limiting threats to the regime. Putin has arrested or killed leading dissidents, instilled fear in the general public, and made the country’s leadership class dependent on his goodwill for their continued prosperity.

Russian journalists are not reporting on a war, or even an invasion or attack. The state requires them to label it a “ special operation”, designed to protect the country’s security in the face of an expanding Nato alliance. Any news organisations deviating from the government’s playbook have been ordered to close by Russian authorities. Meanwhile, access to independent sources of news online and across social media platforms have been significantly cut off by the Russian government.