BRITAIN HAS SPOKEN !!!

Britain has spoken – and it has voted to leave the European Union: 52% of voters elected to Leave the European Union, while 48% opted to Remain.

Despite Euroscepticism in other countries, leaders may see this decision gives the EU a chance to redouble its efforts towards further integration and to restore a greater level of coherence to key policy areas. The fears in Brussels will be that the unity of Europe starts to unravel, putting economic stability and security at risk.

It would be a mistake to consider UK disenchantment with the EU as an isolated case. Opinion polls in all Member States show a decline in support and trust for the political system in general and the EU in particular. The EU must address the deep-seated socio-economic problems that have given rise to these negative perceptions as a matter of urgency, and bring forward appropriate policy solutions, if the EU is to survive and prosper once more.

Repercussions for the European Union

In the coming years, Germany's view of the European Union will probably resemble that of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble, who sees it as a continental bloc that moves at multiple speeds, in which not every country is meant to reach the same level of political and financial integration and problematic members can be expelled. This view would keep several Central and Eastern European nations from entering the eurozone. Countries such as Poland and Hungary would probably agree with this approach; Warsaw and Budapest are not particularly enthusiastic about joining the common currency. Moreover, because crises in the eurozone periphery are far from over, the possibility of Greece and others leaving the euro cannot be ruled out.

Germany's coming approach to Europe will probably also include small doses of the CSU's view of a European Union where foundational principles such as the free movement of people could be suspended or reversed to protect national and regional interests. Germany's new view could also have some elements of the SPD's foreign policy agenda, which is based on cordial but distant ties with the United States and fluid energy and trade ties with Russia.

The transition will be slow and will not be fully felt until after elections in 2017. However, this year will offer some early signals of the change.  Germany will resist France's push for deeper financial integration, especially if it means creating separate budgets for the eurozone or a mechanism for fiscal transfers from northern Europe to the south.

In the short run, this will create friction between Berlin and Paris . However, it could be short-lived, because France will probably become more Euroskeptic after it holds its own general elections in 2017. The ruling Socialist party will struggle to make it to the second round of France's presidential elections, which will probably end up pitting a moderately Euroskeptic center-right (especially if former President Nicolas Sarkozy defeats Alain Juppe to become the conservative candidate) against a ferociously anti-EU right (the National Front).

The next administration in Paris is likely to make two policy decisions that Berlin will support: defending tougher policies on immigrants and preventing new countries from joining the European Union and the eurozone. But a more nationalist government in France could also request the introduction of temporary exceptions in the free movement of goods in Europe to protect some sectors such as agriculture. This would be the ultimate red line for Germany, a nation that depends on exports to keep unemployment at tolerable levels.

Disagreements between France and Germany will not end with the elections in 2017, but the nature of the debate will change. Since the beginning of the economic crisis, the discussions between Paris and Berlin focused on how to deepen European integration to prevent new crises. This was controversial enough, because Berlin and Paris have different views on what the future integration should look like. However, starting in late 2017, the debate will begin focusing on how to reverse some aspects of continental integration to try to save the European Union.