ASSESSING A COUNTRY’S RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES TO FOREIGN INTERFERENCE

Society Permeability 

1. There is a movement or tendency towards regional secession within current borders.
2. Significant ethnic minorities are excluded from political, economic, or social representation.
3. Significant religious or confessional minorities are excluded from political, economic, or social representation.
4. There is an ongoing conflict between religious believers and secularists regarding how society should work.
5. A significant part of the population believes country is losing its sovereignty and independence to make its own political decisions.
6. Violent behaviour often occurs towards individuals based on their ethnicity, clan, or religious beliefs.
7. Many people believe public institutions or public service providers are not there to help them or do not do enough for them.
8. Many people believe election results and proceedings are false or manipulated.
9. There are regions of the country or sections of society that are much poorer than others.
10. A significant part of the population believes people can succeed only if they have political support or patronage.
11. A significant part of the population would prefer a strong and authoritative leader rather than the more deliberative institutions of democracy.
12. Social or development aid organisations based in non-Western countries have a strong presence in society.
13. There is an intensifying or strong line of thinking that glorifies the country’s identity in historical, pre-modern, and/or non-Western terms.
14. There is a strong feeling of nostalgia for how things used to be in the country before democracy/capitalism.
15. Many people believe that social or economic modernisation in the country is taking place too quickly.
16. The dominant religious institution or institutions is/are strongly opposing some of the modernising changes that are happening in society.
17. Many people believe that Western businesses/capital are taking over or crowding out national businesses/capital.
18. Many people have a superficial representation of the West because they have limited direct exposure to Western countries, cinema, media, or languages.
19. There is a significant part of the mainstream media discourse in the country that is critical of NATO or the EU.
20. Many people have negative personal opinions about NATO or the EU.
21. Many of the political leaders engaging in pro-Western public discourse are considered corrupt or insincere.
22. Some nationalist or anti-Western public figures, artists, or groups are widely popular.
23. Fake or misleading political or news stories often garner more visibility than their rebuttals or clarifications.
24. A significant part of the media, NGOs, and informal groups in the country are openly arguing against modernisation or liberal democracy.
25. Journalists and/or civil society activists are often labelled foreign spies, mercenaries, or servants of foreign powers that aim to destabilise the country.
26. Media and civil society fail to properly warn or prepare the wider public to resist media manipulation.
27. Nationalist or anti-Western views from new or little-known sources often go viral on social media.
28. The activities of the media and civil society rarely focus on foreign policy or defence risks and vulnerabilities in a professional and unbiased manner.
29. Some regions of the country or sections of society are significantly more likely to be manipulated by fake or misleading media.

Economic Permeability 

1. The combined status of the country’s national debt and its budgetary deficit is generating anxiety for investors.
2. The country has an unsuccessful working relationship with international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
3. The country is generally unable to borrow from the free market (domestic or international) at low or reasonable rates.
4. The government’s macro-economic governance or oversight institutions are incompetent, weak, or highly politicised.
5. Weak data collection and lack of transparency policies have made cartelisation possible.
6. The level of economic competitiveness is low, which makes it easier for a small number of wealthy individuals to control strategic sectors of the economy.
7. The country’s State-Owned Enterprise sector is large and rife with corruption and political cronyism.
8. Most local magnates have made their fortunes through political favouritism.
9. The country’s growth model and political situation are likely to increase economic inequality for some regions or groups.
10. The share of undeclared or illegal labour in the country’s total labour force is significant.
11. A significant percentage of local businesses belongs to non-Western countries directly or through clear intermediaries.
12. Key economic sectors and state infrastructure are owned or controlled by non-Western entities.
13. The current flow of investment is limited, and economic growth is slower than expected.
14. A significant share of the banking market is owned by non-Western entities.
15. A large part of the population working abroad is employed in non-Western countries.
16. A sharp decrease in the level of remittances to the home country would create chaos.
17. The country relies heavily on imports from a single major supplier.
18. Key energy-intensive industries have a significant influence over the country’s political decisions.
19. The country’s key infrastructure is technologically dependent on non-Western countries or entities.
20. The country’s energy dependency is used by another country to influence internal politics.
21. A significant share of the country’s trade (in general or by strategic sector) is with non-Western countries.
22. Important trade routes or energy connections go through the territory of non-Western countries.
23. A significant part of the country’s tourism comes from or through non-Western countries.
24. National media in the country are guided by illegitimate political or economic interests, rather than profit-making.
25. A significant share of the national media market is owned or controlled by non-Western entities

Political Permeability 

1. The legal and institutional layout of the separation of powers is unclear or unpredictable.
2. The system of democratic checks and balances is dysfunctional or unpredictable.
3. The distribution of constitutional powers overwhelmingly favours the political actors who resort to populism during electoral campaigns.
4. The legislation or practice of raising funds for political parties is not overseen by independent institutions in practice.
5. The country’s institutions are ineffective in stopping illegitimate influence on elections.
6. Political Parties Political parties have a hard time forming sustainable governing coalitions after elections.
7. Generally, political parties in opposition are inactive and unable to properly criticise or take action against contentious government decisions.
8. Generally, the government’s legislative agenda is unpredictable and can change overnight.
9. Political power within parties is generally concentrated in the hands of one person or a certain cohesive group of interests.
10. The institutional layout of the country makes creating a new political party extremely difficult.
11. Generally, the priorities of political parties are significantly different from the priorities of the general population.
12. The priorities of ethnic minorities are not well represented by the country’s elective and administrative institutions.
13. There are significant and cohesive social groups, tied by religion, sexual orientation, wealth, or other binding principles, that feel they are being strategically unrepresented by any relevant political actor.
14. Independent civil society organisations have a disproportionately limited influence over political parties or government.
15. Political elites are easily influenced by the views of official religious institutions.
16. The main allegiance of a significant number of people is not towards the country, but towards their clan, informal interest group, or another country
17. Some political elites openly believe that liberal democracy is not the best political system.
18. Policymaking is more influenced by ideology or political interests than by evidence and science.
19. Anti-establishment or anti-system parties or ideas have thrived in recent elections.
20. A significant number of the country’s political elites are mimicking democratic behaviour solely to ease its EU/NATO accession.
21. Key civil servants in public administration are controlled by political interest groups, although they are nominally independent.
22. The public administration is generally inefficient in implementing public policy.
23. The justice system in general tends to be significantly influenced by political or business interests.
24. Important political elites tend to be above the law and do not necessarily comply with laws or judicial decisions.
25. The non-elective institutions that frame the democratic system (Constitutional Court, Electoral Authority) are highly politicised or irrelevant.
26. There is significant public discourse accusing institutions (judiciary, police, military) of force, distorting the country’s democratic order.