WHEN A BUFFER ZONE IS TURNED INTO A PERMANENT BORDER

Israel has stated it does not plan to leave Lebanon even if the current ‘war' ends. Israel appears to be moving toward expanding its border into Lebanon.

While the US-Israeli war on Iran and its economic repercussions on the global economy continues to be at the center of global media attention, Israel is in the process of re-drawing the map of the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon. If successful, Israel’s plans could have regional and global repercussions. And yet, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon has barely made a blip on the Western media’s radar. 

Last week, Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said that Israeli forces will not leave the south of Lebanon after the end of the current war. Katz’s statements are in line with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said last weekend that he had instructed the Israeli army to expand its control in the south of Lebanon up to 10 kilometers, to create a “security buffer zone.” These statements come as the Israeli army has deployed four divisions to the Lebanese border, and continues to push into Lebanese territory.

Everything in the current Israeli invasion of Lebanon is repeated from previous invasions; Israeli orders to civilians to leave their villages in the south, the near 1 million Lebanese displaced, the bombing of infrastructure, especially bridges over the Litani river, and the fighting inside and around Lebanese villages. But there is something different this time; Israel’s destruction of infrastructure is not a mere war strategy. It is yet another announcement of Israel’s renewed doctrine: occupying new areas, often depopulating them by force, and permanently controlling them, basically expanding Israel’s de facto borders with “buffer zones.”

Although Israel has implemented elements of this strategy in the past, this time it is significantly different. First, because Israel is explicitly stating that it wants to permanently occupy new Arab territory, against the backdrop of official statements about ‘Greater Israel’ ambitions. Second, because it is happening without any significant international reaction. And lastly, because this new model that Israel is trying to replicate on a second front could have implications for the future of war and border drawing worldwide. 

This reality raises two critical questions: how did this model become an Israeli official policy? And what will this Israeli vision mean for the Middle East and the world, if realized?

In the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli forces have conducted large-scale detonations and demolitions of Lebanese villages and infrastructure in the south. The tactics resemble the same tactics Israel used in Gaza during the height of the genocide. In Gaza, Israel had an explicit goal of pushing Palestinians permanently out of entire areas, like the northern Gaza Strip cities of Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia, and the southern city of Rafah. 

Now, as Israel escalates its war on Lebanon, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz has made Israel’s plans clear: implement the Gaza model of total destruction and ethnic cleansing. He said on Tuesday that “the model of Rafah and Beit Hanoun” will be implemented in Lebanon.

Israeli plans to create a buffer zone 10 kilometers deep into Lebanon are more than a military strategy. It shows an intention to reshape an area of approximately 10,000 square kilometers, making it uninhabitable for its Lebanese residents, and putting it under Israeli military control.

This means that Netanyahu’s orders to the Israeli army to create a buffer zone 10 kilometers deep into Lebanon is more than a military strategy. It is a statement of reshaping an area of approximately 10,000 square kilometers, making it uninhabitable for its Lebanese residents, and putting it under Israeli military control. In Syria, Israel hasn’t conducted the same kind of destruction, but it has announced that it will remain in the new territories it occupied after the fall of the al-Assad regime in December 2024. Together, in Lebanon and Syria, Israel seeks to maintain permanent control of some 14,000 square kilometers, all to create a so-called “buffer zone.”

The model that Katz evokes in Gaza resulted in the creation of the ‘yellow zone’, making up 53% of the Gaza Strip, where Israeli forces have destroyed all civilian infrastructure, pushing the Palestinian population to the crowded tent encampments of Al-Mawasi and Deir al-Balah. The Israeli army was supposed to evacuate the area behind the ‘yellow line’ as part of the ceasefire, but last December, the Israeli army chief of staff announced the  ‘yellow line’ in the Gaza Strip as Israel’s new border.

If Israel’s genocide in Gaza is any indication of its state policy, Israel’s current actions in Lebanon suggest it plans to apply the same logic of the ‘yellow line’ to southern Lebanon – creating a temporary ‘buffer zone’ before entrenching it as a permanent border. 

The way this logic developed introduces a new and dangerous approach to building and implementing strategic plans. First, creating facts on the ground, militarily, with no political opposition. Then, consecrating these facts in pro-longed and one-sided ceasefire deals with U.S. support. If this goes through in Lebanon, it can easily be repeated elsewhere, such as in Syria or parts of the West Bank. Even more concerning, nothing can guarantee that other countries with sufficient power would do the same in other conflicts in other parts of the world.

The new Israeli territorial doctrine goes beyond redrawing the map of the Middle East. It is part of the ongoing process of reshaping the international order, doing away with international law, even as a formality, and shaping the world through military force.

Israel has announced that even if the U.S. ended its war on Iran, it will continue its own war on Lebanon. In light of the new reality on the ground, with Hezbollah revealing that its force hasn’t been destroyed to the point expected by Israel, and that it will very likely remain present in the country, Israel’s new goal might be a territorial one, through a long, and destructive war, which would lead to something resembling the Gaza model, establishing new de facto borders in the Lebanese south, without a political agreement to give it any legitimacy.

Beyond the impact on Lebanon itself, it is the whole way the world will be run, and the borders will be drawn in the future, that is at stake.

Note

On March 5, 2026, Israel ordered the displacement of the entire southern suburbs of Beirut. On Thursday at 3 p.m., time in Beirut took on a different pace after Israel issued a mass evacuation order — illegal under international law — for residents of the entire southern suburb of the Lebanese capital, encompassing four major neighborhoods.

An evacuation zone of this scale is unprecedented in the context of wars between Israel and Hezbollah. It is more reminiscent of Israeli practices in Gaza, when it ordered the evacuation of more than 85 percent of the enclave which led to the forced displacement of nearly two million Palestinians.

The size of the area Israel ordered with evacuation is larger than the entire city of Beirut, which covers 19 km². If we compare the evacuation area to other cities in the world, it would correspond to most of the southern part of Paris (the Left Bank) or over a third of Manhattan in New York.

Approximately 700,000 residents forced to flee: This is more than half the population of central Beirut in 2021 (1,290,000 residents), according to data  from the United Nations.

In fact, the southern suburbs of Beirut (locally known as Dahieh) constitute the most densely populated area in the Beirut metropolitan area. While the average density of the entire urban area of Beirut is about 19,500 residents per km², the neighborhoods of Haret Hreik and Burj al-Barajneh, at the heart of Dahieh, reach around 35,000 residents per km².

Eight percent of Lebanese territory affected by Israel's unprecedented evacuation order According to calculations by L’Orient-Le Jour, 855 km² of Lebanon are affected, including 832 km² in the south of the country — that is, the entire area between the Litani River and the Blue Line, which serves as a buffer zone with Israel — and 23 km² in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

For a small country like Lebanon — whose area is comparable to the French department of Gironde, around Bordeaux — and which covers about 10,000 km², this therefore represents nearly one-tenth of its territory.

Four localities affected by the evacuation order in Beirut's southern suburbs

The evacuation order issued by the Israeli army explicitly mentions the neighborhoods of Burj al-Barajneh, Haddath, Haret Hreik, and Chiyah. However, the map that accompanies the evacuation order — and which L’Orient-Le Jour has reproduced above — does not perfectly match the administrative boundaries of these neighborhoods, but also concerns other areas, either in whole or in part.
If we are to stick to the text issued as part of Israel’s evacuation order, the neighborhoods affected are as follows:

• Haret Hreik: a predominantly Shia neighborhood in the southern suburbs of Beirut, this neighborhood is fully included in the evacuation zone. As a result, two hospitals were urgently evacuated, Bahma and al-Sahel, and their patients were transferred to other hospitals in Beirut.
• Chiyah: a densely populated, predominantly Shia neighborhood in the southern suburbs. The entire neighborhood is affected by the evacuation order.
• Haddath: a city on the southern outskirts of Beirut with a majority of registered Christian voters, mostly Maronites, fully included in the evacuation zone.

Burj al-Barajneh: a predominantly Shia, working-class neighborhood in the southern suburbs, adjacent to a major Palestinian refugee camp. The entire neighborhood is targeted by the evacuation