THE NEED TO RAISE COSTS ON RUSSIA

NATO countries should develop a calibrated offensive campaign against Russia that includes several components:

1. Escalating sanctions against Moscow;
2. Targeted offensive cyber operations against important Russian military and commercial targets;
3. Information and influence operations targeting the populations of Russia and its partners, such as Belarus;
4. More aggressive actions against assets valuable to Russia, such as its shadow fleet.

In short, NATO should design a campaign to escalate the costs on Russia should the country continue its coercive  operations.

First, NATO should develop and communicate a clearer strategy that involves ramping up sanctions to stop Moscow’s shadow war in Europe. This approach might include increasing secondary sanctions against countries that import Russian goods, including oil and gas, as well as sanctioning additional entities and individuals involved in illegal Russian exports.

Second is an increase in NATO covert and overt actions. For example, Russia’s shadow fleet, which is illegally shipping oil and gas to overseas markets, is vulnerable to seizure. Russia also has oil and gas pipelines that are vulnerable to sabotage.

Third is conducting targeted offensive cyber operations against important Russian military and commercial targets, including the networks of Russia’s energy sector that are vital to Russia’s economy. Offensive cyber operations against Russia remain an important stick that can be used if Russian sabo­tage and subversion continues.

Fourth, NATO countries should conduct a more aggressive offensive information campaign targeting the populations of Russia and its partners, such as Belarus, devised to counter state-run media.

An offensive campaign should be designed to signal to Moscow that continued active measures in Europe will be costly. In short, a successful Western campaign needs to be coercive to change Moscow’s behavior, and the pain has to appear contingent on Russian behavior. But a strategy that does not include raising the costs on Moscow is likely to fail.