THE EU IS STILL DIVIDED OVER TURKEY'S MEMBERSHIP

The EU presents itself as deeply divided over the issue of Turkey's membership of the Union. The respective positions of the member states are backed by a bundle of arguments concerning eventual political and economic problems and/or consequences of Turkish membership.

The "Pro" Camp

The pro-camp concentrates mainly on the strategic advantages that Turkish membership would have for the EU. They point to the enormous geo-strategic importance of Turkey for the realization of the Union's fundamental political interest in creating a secure and prospering neighborhood. In their analysis the accession process will lead to a politically stable democratically and economically advancing Turkey that can fulfill two important functions: First, it would serve as an example for the broader Middle East region that Western-style democracy and economic prosperity is possible in a country with an overwhelming Muslim population and second, this would enable Turkey, as part of the EU's foreign and security policy framework to play an achor role in its politically voltaile neighborhood. In addition, to that, Turkey could enhance the EU's energy security by developing itself, with EU assistance, to a regional energy hub that would be crucial for Europe's supply with natural gas and oil. At the same time, such a role would considerably enhance the Union's access to the Caspian region and to Central Asia. And finally, Turkish membership could signal to the Islamic world that the EU is not bound to be a 'Christian club' but that its values are open to all that want to apply them, also to large, secular predominantly Muslim democracies. This could boost the chances of political and economic 'modernizers' in other Muslim societies who closely follow the fate of Turkey's EU aspirations.  But the EU, too, could directly profit as the inclusion of approximately 80 million Turkish Muslims as democratic EU citizens would provide a potential for the development of a genuine 'Euro Islam' that could help overcome the potential of Islamist radicalization in some member states. Other arguments in favor of Turkish membership of the EU emphasize the great economic potential that the country has as one of the more important emerging market economies to contribute to the EU's economic growth. Or they argue that the young Turkish population could help overcome some of the problems that will result from the general demographic decline of almost all EU member states.

The "Contra" Camp

The fears are based on a number of arguments which can be broadly divided in political-ideological ones and economic-social ones. All of them are derived from the conviction that Turkey is too large, too poor and too Muslim in order to fit into the EU scheme. The most simple but, nevertheless, weighty argument is that Turkey geographically does not belong to Europe and thus is not a European country being eligible for EU membership. Added to this, one can often find the argument that Turkey due to its political and cultural- ideological history is not part of the history of European civilization which also prevents the possibility of an eventual membership. Turkey as the "other" cannot become an EU member.  This perception of Turkey's "otherness" is also behind the prominent argument that Turkish membership would dilute the EU as a political union. More concretely, it is feared that Turkey's different political culture would lead to constant problems in EU decision-making and in the implementation of EU decisions among an overwhelming Muslim population. There is also concern that Turkish national interests will dominate the EU's agenda as the country would be the largest member state at the time of accession with respective great infuence in institutions and decision-making procedures. Others argue that acceptance of Turkey, in the ranks of EU members would open the door for other non-European countries to follow. Countries especially mentioned in this context are Morocco and Israel. Another bundle of arguments put forward against Turkish accession concern possible social and economic consequences. There is a general fear that the EU would experience another wave of labour migration from Turkey induced by considerable differences in the level of development which could negatively impact on the social frabric of member states, especially Germany. In addition, due to Turkey's low level of development in relation to the EU's average, huge money transfers are foreseen in terms of EU structural funds and agricultural support mechanism which could cause a total breakdown of the EU's financial system. In short, social and economic costs of an eventual Turkish membership are seen as unbearable for the EU.

Admittedly, the pro-and contra arguments above can be seriously disputed. In the end, the decision for or against Turkish membership of the EU is a fundamentally political one and it has to be justified this way. Turkish membership will not occur without public consent and there is still a long way to go for both sides. The main question is if the EU and Turkey, their public and political elites will have the stamina and patience to go through such a long and arduous political process.